IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jet/dpaper/dpaper512.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Voting behavior in Indonesia from 1999 to 2014 : religious cleavage or economic performance?

Author

Listed:
  • Higashikata, Takayuki
  • Kawamura, Koichi

Abstract

In this study, we examine the voting behavior in Indonesian parliamentary elections from 1999 to 2014. After summarizing the changes in Indonesian parties' share of the vote from a historical standpoint, we investigate the voting behavior with simple regression models to analyze the effect of regional characteristics on Islamic/secular parties' vote share, using aggregated panel data at the district level. Then, we also test the hypothesis of retrospective economic voting. The results show that districts which formerly stood strongly behind Islamic parties continued to select those parties, or gave preference to abstention over the parties in some elections. From the point of view of retrospective economic voting, we found that districts which experienced higher per capita economic growth gave more support to the ruling parties, although our results remain tentative because information on 2014 is not yet available.

Suggested Citation

  • Higashikata, Takayuki & Kawamura, Koichi, 2015. "Voting behavior in Indonesia from 1999 to 2014 : religious cleavage or economic performance?," IDE Discussion Papers 512, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper512
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/?action=repository_action_common_download&item_id=37665&item_no=1&attribute_id=22&file_no=1
    File Function: First version, 2015
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Healy & Gabriel S. Lenz, 2014. "Substituting the End for the Whole: Why Voters Respond Primarily to the Election‐Year Economy," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(1), pages 31-47, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Benjamin Marx, 2018. "Elections as Incentives: Project Completion and Visibility in African Politics," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03873801, HAL.
    2. Mattozzi, Andrea & Snowberg, Erik, 2018. "The right type of legislator: A theory of taxation and representation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 54-65.
    3. João Pereira dos Santos & José Tavares & José Mesquita, 2021. "Leave them kids alone! National exams as a political tool," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(3), pages 405-426, December.
    4. Conconi, Paola & DeRemer, David R. & Kirchsteiger, Georg & Trimarchi, Lorenzo & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2017. "Suspiciously timed trade disputes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 57-76.
    5. Çağatay Bircan & Orkun Saka, 2021. "Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2763-2796.
    6. Christopher Wratil, 2015. "Democratic Responsiveness in the European Union: the Case of the Council," LEQS – LSE 'Europe in Question' Discussion Paper Series 94, European Institute, LSE.
    7. Jean-Benoît Eyméoud, 2018. "Housing and discrimination in economics : an empirical approach using Big Data and natural experiments [Logement et discrimination en économie : une approche empirique mêlant expérience naturelle e," SciencePo Working papers tel-03419360, HAL.
    8. Jean-Benoît Eymeoud & Paul Vertier, 2018. "Gender Biases: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in French Local Elections," Post-Print hal-03393139, HAL.
    9. Pulejo, Massimo & Querubín, Pablo, 2021. "Electoral concerns reduce restrictive measures during the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    10. Laurent Bouton & Paola Conconi & Francisco Pino & Maurizio Zanardi, 2021. "The Tyranny of the Single-Minded: Guns, Environment, and Abortion," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 48-59, March.
    11. Jean-Benoît Eyméoud & Paul Vertier, 2023. "Gender biases: evidence from a natural experiment in French local elections," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 38(113), pages 3-56.
    12. Laurent Bouton & Paola Conconi & Francisco Pino & Maurizio Zanardi, 2018. "Guns, Environment, and Abortion: How Single-Minded Voters Shape Politicians' Decisions," Working Papers wp459, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    13. Jing Cai & Changcheng Song, 2016. "Do Disaster Experience and Knowledge Affect Insurance Take-up Decisions?," NBER Working Papers 22403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Ben Lockwood & James Rockey, 2020. "Negative Voters? Electoral Competition with Loss-Aversion," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(632), pages 2619-2648.
    15. Çağatay Bircan & Orkun Saka, 2021. "Lending Cycles and Real Outcomes: Costs of Political Misalignment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(639), pages 2763-2796.
    16. Andrew J. Healy & Mikael Persson & Erik Snowberg, 2016. "Digging into the Pocketbook: Evidence on Economic Voting from Income Registry Data Matched to a Voter Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 6171, CESifo.
    17. Nollenberger, Clemens & Unger, Gina-Maria, 2020. "Fundamentals-Based State-Level Forecasts of the 2020 US Presidential Election," SocArXiv cm58f, Center for Open Science.
    18. Jean-Benoît Eymeoud, 2018. "Housing and Discrimination in Economics: an Empirical Approach using Big Data and Natural Experiments," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/3f39ik5s3j8, Sciences Po.
    19. Mahadevan, Meera & Shenoy, Ajay, 2023. "The political consequences of resource scarcity: Targeted spending in a water-stressed democracy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    20. Maffioli, Elisa M., 2021. "The political economy of health epidemics: Evidence from the Ebola outbreak," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indonesia; Elections; Political parties; Politics; Religion; Election; Political party; Voting behavior; Electoral volatility; Effective number of parties; Religious cleavage voting; Retrospective economic voting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper512. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michitaka Imamitsu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/idegvjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.