IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/socsci/v103y2022i2p399-408.html

Performance voting, retrospective voting, and economic voting. Conceptual clarity and empirical testing

Author

Listed:
  • Dieter Stiers

Abstract

Objective The main objective of the study is to distinguish the often‐used concepts and measures of retrospective (economic) performance voting. I argue that concepts that have been used synonymously—such as performance voting, retrospective voting, and economic voting—should be distinguished theoretically and empirically, as they address different phenomena. Methods I use the data of the fifth module of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems to test differences in the correlates and effects of general retrospective performance evaluations and retrospective evaluations of the economy on incumbent voting. Results Both measures are associated with other valence evaluations and economic evaluations with the personal economic situation. Both measures significantly explain incumbent voting, but the effects of the general retrospective performance measure are stronger. Conclusion By distinguishing different concepts, theoretical confusion can be avoided. Given the differences in correlates and effect sizes, future studies should select their empirical measures carefully.

Suggested Citation

  • Dieter Stiers, 2022. "Performance voting, retrospective voting, and economic voting. Conceptual clarity and empirical testing," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(2), pages 399-408, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:103:y:2022:i:2:p:399-408
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13125
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/ssqu.13125
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/ssqu.13125?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Healy, Andrew J. & Persson, Mikael & Snowberg, Erik, 2017. "Digging into the Pocketbook: Evidence on Economic Voting from Income Registry Data Matched to a Voter Survey," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 111(4), pages 771-785, November.
    2. Cameron Wimpy & Guy D. Whitten, 2017. "What Is and What May Never Be: Economic Voting in Developing Democracies," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1099-1111, September.
    3. Michael Lewis-Beck & Mary Stegmaier, 2013. "The VP-function revisited: a survey of the literature on vote and popularity functions after over 40 years," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 157(3), pages 367-385, December.
    4. Michael K. Miller, 2013. "For the Win! The Effect of Professional Sports Records on Mayoral Elections," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 94(1), pages 59-78, March.
    5. Enelow,James M. & Hinich,Melvin J., 1984. "The Spatial Theory of Voting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521275156, January.
    6. Anthony Downs, 1957. "An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 135-135.
    7. John Ferejohn, 1986. "Incumbent performance and electoral control," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 5-25, January.
    8. Nannestad, Peter & Paldam, Martin, 1997. "From the Pocketbook of the Welfare Man: A Pooled Cross-Section Study of Economic Voting in Denmark, 1986–92," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 111-155, January.
    9. Jeff Cummins, 2009. "Issue Voting and Crime in Gubernatorial Elections," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 90(3), pages 632-651, September.
    10. Andrew Healy & Gabriel S. Lenz, 2014. "Substituting the End for the Whole: Why Voters Respond Primarily to the Election‐Year Economy," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(1), pages 31-47, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Áron Hajnal, 2025. "Popular autocrats: why do voters support Viktor Orbán’s government in Hungary? A quantitative analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 202(1), pages 51-75, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elinder, Mikael & Jordahl, Henrik & Poutvaara, Panu, 2015. "Promises, policies and pocketbook voting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 177-194.
    2. Mattozzi, Andrea & Snowberg, Erik, 2018. "The right type of legislator: A theory of taxation and representation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 54-65.
    3. Matthieß, Theres, 2020. "Retrospective pledge voting: A comparative study of the electoral consequences of government parties’ pledge fulfilment," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 59(4), pages 774-796.
    4. Upward, Richard & Wright, Peter W., 2024. "Income shocks, political support and voting behaviour," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    5. Scott de Marchi, 1999. "Adaptive Models and Electoral Instability," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 11(3), pages 393-419, July.
    6. Kailthya, Subham & Kambhampati, Uma, 2022. "Political competition and public healthcare: Evidence from India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Persson, Torsten & Tabellini, Guido, 2002. "Political economics and public finance," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 24, pages 1549-1659, Elsevier.
    8. Hibbs, Douglas A, Jr, 2000. "Bread and Peace Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 104(1-2), pages 149-180, July.
    9. Andrea Baranzini & Stefano Carattini & Linda Tesauro, 2021. "Designing Effective and Acceptable Road Pricing Schemes: Evidence from the Geneva Congestion Charge," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 79(3), pages 417-482, July.
    10. Enriqueta Aragones, 1997. "Negativity Effect and the Emergence of Ideologies," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 9(2), pages 189-210, April.
    11. Benjamin Marx, 2018. "Elections as Incentives: Project Completion and Visibility in African Politics," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03873801, HAL.
    12. Michael K Miller, 2011. "Seizing the mantle of change: Modeling candidate quality as effectiveness instead of valence," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 23(1), pages 52-68, January.
    13. César Martinelli & John Duggan, 2014. "The Political Economy of Dynamic Elections: A Survey and Some New Results," Working Papers 1403, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    14. JuanD. Carrillo & Micael Castanheira, 2008. "Information and Strategic Political Polarisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(530), pages 845-874, July.
    15. Conconi, Paola & DeRemer, David R. & Kirchsteiger, Georg & Trimarchi, Lorenzo & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2017. "Suspiciously timed trade disputes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 57-76.
    16. Yasushi Asako, 2010. "Partially Binding Platforms: Political Promises as a Partial Commitment Device," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    17. Dalibor Eterovic & Nicolas Eterovic, 2010. "Political Competition vs. PoliticalParticipation: Effects on Government's Size," Working Papers wp_006, Adolfo Ibáñez University, School of Government.
    18. A. Kamakura, Wagner & Afonso Mazzon, Jose & De Bruyn, Arnaud, 2006. "Modeling voter choice to predict the final outcome of two-stage elections," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 689-706.
    19. Thomas Bräuninger, 2007. "Stability in Spatial Voting Games with Restricted Preference Maximizing," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 19(2), pages 173-191, April.
    20. Tanner, Thomas Cole, 1994. "The spatial theory of elections: an analysis of voters' predictive dimensions and recovery of the underlying issue space," ISU General Staff Papers 1994010108000018174, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:103:y:2022:i:2:p:399-408. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0038-4941 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.