IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/iza/izadps/dp37.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Exchange Rate Volatility Effects on the German Labour Market: A Survey of Recent Results and Extensions

Author

Listed:
  • Buscher, Herbert

    (IWH Halle)

  • Mueller, Claudia

    (affiliation not available)

Abstract

In this paper, a survey on theoretically expected and empirically proved impacts of exchange rate volatility is given. With regard to the West German unemployment, the effects of volatility are empirically analyzed using three different volatility measures and four country groups. In autoregressive models, a significant disturbing impact of volatility can be found with annual data as well as with monthly data for the whole period. While this impact does not differ for the three volatility measures, it is, however, less strong when using the monthly data. Differentiating for different subperiods by use of the monthly data, the reported impact is stronger for relatively stable periods and country groups. When isolating the cyclical component of the unemployment rate, it can be demonstrated that the whole reported impact solely affects this component. In a dynamic Okun-type relation, an additional significant impact of volatility, however, cannot be proved for all subperiods.

Suggested Citation

  • Buscher, Herbert & Mueller, Claudia, 1999. "Exchange Rate Volatility Effects on the German Labour Market: A Survey of Recent Results and Extensions," IZA Discussion Papers 37, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp37
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://docs.iza.org/dp37.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    2. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Entry and Exit Decisions under Uncertainty," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 620-638, June.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 1984. "Exchange Rate Volatility and World Trade," IMF Occasional Papers 1984/005, International Monetary Fund.
    4. André Sapir & Khalid Sekkat, 1990. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade: the effects of the European monetary system," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8228, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Martin Falk & Rahel Falk, 2000. "Pricing to Market of German Exporters: Evidence from Panel Data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(1), pages 21-46, March.
    6. Stirböck, Claudia & Heinemann, Friedrich, 1999. "Capital Mobility within EMU," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-19, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Mr. Hamid Faruqee & Mr. Peter B. Clark, 1997. "Exchange Rate Volatility, Pricing to Market and Trade Smoothing," IMF Working Papers 1997/126, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Müller, Claudia & Buscher, Herbert S., 1999. "The impact of monetary instruments on shock absorption in EU-Countries," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-15, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    9. Daniel Gros, 1996. "Germany’s stake in exchange rate stability," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 31(5), pages 236-240, September.
    10. Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July.
    11. De Grauwe, Paul, 1987. "International trade and economic growth in the european monetary system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 389-398.
    12. Giuseppe De Arcangelis & Cristina Pensa, 1997. "Exchange-Rate Volatility, Exchange-Rate Pass-Through and International Trade," Working Papers 43, Sapienza University of Rome, CIDEI.
    13. Alexander Jung, 1996. "Is there a causal relationship between exchange rate volatility and unemployment?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 31(6), pages 281-282, November.
    14. Joshua Aizenman & Nancy P. Marion, 1996. "Volatility and the Investment Response," NBER Working Papers 5841, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Patrick A. Puhani, 2001. "Labour Mobility: An Adjustment Mechanism in Euroland? Empirical Evidence for Western Germany, France and Italy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 2(2), pages 127-140, May.
    2. Franz, Wolfgang, 1999. "Real and monetary challenges to wage policy in Germany at the turn of the millennium: technical progress, globalization and European Monetary Union," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-48, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2004. "Contagion, herding and exchange-rate instability — A survey," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 39(4), pages 222-228, July.
    4. Ulrich Kaiser & Claudia Stirböck, 1999. "The impact of the introduction of the Euro on firms' expectations," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 34(3), pages 107-115, May.
    5. Puhani, Patrick A., 1999. "Labour Mobility - An Adjustment Mechanism in Euroland?," IZA Discussion Papers 34, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Müller, Claudia & Buscher, Herbert S., 1999. "The impact of monetary instruments on shock absorption in EU-Countries," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-15, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 231-264, July.
    8. PERUGINI, Cristiano, 2009. "Employment Intensity Of Growth In Italy. A Note Using Regional Data," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    9. Döpke, Jörg, 2001. "The "Employment Intensity" of Growth in Europe," Kiel Working Papers 1021, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claudia Stirböck & Herbert Buscher, 2000. "Exchange rate volatility effects on labour markets," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 35(1), pages 9-22, January.
    2. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2001. "Real Impacts of Intra-European Exchange Rate Variability: A Case for EMU?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 231-264, July.
    3. Puhani Patrick A., 2001. "Labour Mobility: An Adjustment Mechanism in Euroland? Empirical Evidence for Western Germany, France and Italy," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 127-140, May.
    4. Don Bredin & Stilianos Fountas & Eithne Murphy, 2003. "An Empirical Analysis of Short-run and Long-run Irish Export Functions: Does exchange rate volatility matter?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 193-208.
    5. Agathe Cote, 1994. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade," International Trade 9406001, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jun 1994.
    6. Franz, Wolfgang, 1999. "Real and monetary challenges to wage policy in Germany at the turn of the millennium: technical progress, globalization and European Monetary Union," ZEW Discussion Papers 99-48, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    7. Ansgar Belke & Leo Kaas, 2004. "Exchange Rate Movements and Employment Growth: An OCA Assessment of the CEE Economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(2), pages 247-280, June.
    8. Fountas, Stilianos & Aristotelous, Kyriacos, 1999. "Has the European Monetary System led to more exports? Evidence from four European Union countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(3), pages 357-363, March.
    9. Sekkat Khalid, 2001. "On the Aggregate Impact of Exchange Rate Variability on EU Trade," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 57-78, February.
    10. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2002. "Exchange rate effects on the volume and variability of trade flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, August.
    11. Matthias Göcke & Ansgar Belke, 1999. "Micro and Macro Hysteresis in Employment under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 722, Society for Computational Economics.
    12. Agathe Côté, "undated". "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade: A Survey," Staff Working Papers 94-5, Bank of Canada.
    13. Rümeysa ÇELİK, 2018. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Export: The Case of Turkey (1995-2017)," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 68(1), pages 181-180, June.
    14. Heinemann, Friedrich & Schüler, Martin, 2002. "How integrated are the European retail financial markets? A cointegration analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-22, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    15. Ansgar Belke & Ralph Setzer, 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth: Empirical Evidence from the CEE Economies," CESifo Working Paper Series 1056, CESifo.
    16. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
    17. Andreas Savvides, 1992. "Unanticipated exchange rate variability and the growth of international trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(3), pages 446-463, September.
    18. Heinemann, Friedrich, 1998. "Die Theorie der optimalen Währungsräume und die politische Reformfähigkeit: Ein vernachlässigtes Kriterium," ZEW Discussion Papers 98-02, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    19. Musonda, Anthony, 2008. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Non-Traditional Exports Performance: Zambia, 1965–1999," MPRA Paper 26952, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Sulistiyo K. Ardiyono & Arianto A. Patunru, 2022. "The impact of employment protection on FDI at different stages of economic development," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(12), pages 3679-3714, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    European Monetary Union; exchange rate volatility; Okun's law; West German labour market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Holger Hinte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/izaaade.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.