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Expectations and Forward Risk Premium in the Spanish Power Market

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  • María Dolores Furió

    (Universitat de València)

  • Vicente Meneu

    (Universitat de València)

Abstract

To analyse the forward risk premium in the Spanish electricity market, we adopt not only an ex post approach, but also an ex ante. We find that the sign of the ex post forward premium depends on the unexpected variation in demand and on the unexpected variation in the hydro-energy capacity, and that the ex ante forward premium varies with the expected demand in tight market conditions, showing that the participation of forward dealing agents in the Spanish market responds to risk considerations. Moreover, we find support for the implications derived from the Bessembinder & Lemmon (2002) equilibrium model.

Suggested Citation

  • María Dolores Furió & Vicente Meneu, 2009. "Expectations and Forward Risk Premium in the Spanish Power Market," Working Papers. Serie AD 2009-02, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  • Handle: RePEc:ivi:wpasad:2009-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francis A. Longstaff & Ashley W. Wang, 2004. "Electricity Forward Prices: A High-Frequency Empirical Analysis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1877-1900, August.
    2. Catarina Goulão & Luca Panaccione, 2007. "Pooling And Redistribution With Moral Hazard," Working Papers. Serie AD 2007-19, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    3. Benth, Fred Espen & Cartea, Álvaro & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2008. "Pricing forward contracts in power markets by the certainty equivalence principle: Explaining the sign of the market risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2006-2021, October.
    4. Diko Pavel & Lawford Steve & Limpens Valerie, 2006. "Risk Premia in Electricity Forward Prices," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-24, September.
    5. Christophe Muller, 2007. "Axiomatically Sound Poverty Measurement With Scarce Data And Price Dispersion," Working Papers. Serie AD 2007-02, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
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