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Rural Population Growth, 1950-1990: The Roles of Human Capital, Industry Structure and Government Policy

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  • Huang, T.
  • Orazem, Peter
  • Wohlgemuth, Darin

Abstract

A human capital investment model of migration is applied to data on changes in county working- age populations. Counties having more highly educated populations grew more slowly. While human capital raises rural incomes, this effect is swamped by the higher returns to human capital in urban markets. This leads to "brain drain" from rural areas. Other results include: 1) Populations grow more rapidly in rural counties that have a diversified employment base. 2) Farm population grows faster (or declines more slowly) in counties with relatively high farm income, and nonfarm populations grow faster in counties with relatively high nonfarm income. However 3) there is no evidence of positive spillover income effects across the farm and nonfarm sectors: higher farm incomes lead to slower nonfarm population growth and vice versa. 4) Measured county government services financed by local taxes or debt have neutral or negative effects on population growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, T. & Orazem, Peter & Wohlgemuth, Darin, 2002. "Rural Population Growth, 1950-1990: The Roles of Human Capital, Industry Structure and Government Policy," Staff General Research Papers Archive 5061, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:5061
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel C. Monchuk & Dermot J. Hayes & John A. Miranowski & Dayton M. Lambert, 2011. "Inference Based On Alternative Bootstrapping Methods In Spatial Models With An Application To County Income Growth In The United States," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(5), pages 880-896, December.
    2. Kopainsky, Birgit & Buser, Benjamin & Rieder, Peter, 2005. "Who Replaces Agriculture's Contribution to Settlement in Lagging Rural Areas? An Integrated Input-Output and Dynamic Simulation Analysis," 2005 International Congress, August 23-27, 2005, Copenhagen, Denmark 24586, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    3. Daniel C. Monchuk & John A. Miranowski & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock, 2007. "An Analysis of Regional Economic Growth in the U.S. Midwest," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 29(1), pages 17-39.
    4. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Tobias D. Ketterer, 2012. "Do Local Amenities Affect The Appeal Of Regions In Europe For Migrants?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 535-561, October.
    5. Cho, Seong-Hoon & Kim, Seung Gyu & Clark, Christopher D. & Park, William M., 2007. "Spatial Analysis of Rural Economic Development Using a Locally Weighted Regression Model," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(01), pages 24-38, April.
    6. Sander, William, 2004. "Education and urban household location," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(3), pages 327-331, March.
    7. Artz, Georgeanne M. & Orazem, Peter F., 2005. "Reexamining Rural Decline: How Changing Rural Classifications and Short Time Frames Affect Perceived Growth," 2005 Annual meeting, July 24-27, Providence, RI 19408, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Maureen Kilkenny, 2010. "Urban/Regional Economics And Rural Development," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 449-470.
    9. Zhang, Xinxin & Van der Sluis, Evert, 2006. "U.S. Agricultural Labor Out-migration Determinants, 1939-2004," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA 21412, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    10. Tessa Conroy & Stephan Weiler, 2016. "Does gender matter for job creation? Business ownership and employment growth," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 397-419, August.
    11. Devin Bunten & Stephan Weiler & Eric Thompson & Sammy Zahran, 2015. "Entrepreneurship, Information, And Growth," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 560-584, September.
    12. Daniel Hummel, 2016. "Inter-State Internal Migration: State-level Wellbeing as a Cause," Journal of Happiness Studies, Springer, vol. 17(5), pages 2149-2165, October.

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