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Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Rising Public Debt-To-Gdp Ratios

  • Oviedo, P. Marcelo

In financial and economic policy circles concerned with public debt in developing countries, a rising debt-GDP ratio is interpreted as a signal of overborrowing, warning of debt defaults if strong fiscal corrections are not adopted in time. This paper shows why this interpretation is incorrect by building a simple model of fiscal policy in which upward-sloping debt paths are observed even though the probability of default is ``almost surely" equal to zero.

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File URL: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/sites/default/files/publications/papers/p3861-2006-11-27.pdf
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Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 12701.

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Date of creation: 27 Nov 2006
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Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12701
Contact details of provider: Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
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Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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  1. Oya Celasun & Xavier Debrun & Jonathan David Ostry, 2006. "Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries; A "Fan-Chart" Approach," IMF Working Papers 06/67, International Monetary Fund.
  2. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1993. "Uninsured idiosyncratic risk and aggregate saving," Working Papers 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Tauchen, George & Hussey, Robert, 1991. "Quadrature-Based Methods for Obtaining Approximate Solutions to Nonlinear Asset Pricing Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 371-96, March.
  4. Enrique G. Mendoza & P. Marcelo Oviedo, 2006. "Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Developing Countries: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer," NBER Working Papers 12586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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