Theory-based evaluation of transformative innovation policies

"The growing prominence of transformative innovation policy (TIP) necessitates a rethinking of the methodologies, metrics, and practices used in policy monitoring, evaluation, and learning. This article explores the methodological implications of applying theory-based evaluation (TBE) to the assessment of TIP initiatives. TBE emphasizes the identification and validation of causal mechanisms linking policy inputs to outcomes, while accounting for the contextual factors shaping these relationships. We examine key concepts and approaches for empirically testing theories of change, with particular focus on contribution analysis and process tracing as integrative frameworks for combining diverse analytical techniques and data sources. Using the EU Joint Research Centre’s Preparatory Action on place-based TIP as an illustrative case, we demonstrate how these methods can be operationalized in practice. The discussion highlights the critical role of fostering an evaluation culture oriented toward reflexive policy learning. We conclude by underscoring the potential of theory-based evaluation to clarify mechanisms of change, assess the realization of intended outcomes, and strengthen the foundations for continuous policy learning and improvement."