Literature review on stress tests in food supply chains

"The application of stress tests, widely used in finance and engineering, to food supply chains and food security remains underexplored. As global crises, climate change and geopolitical disruptions increasingly threaten food systems, stress testing helps assess resilience, identify vulnerabilities and enhance preparedness. This report reviews 25 studies that have applied stress testing or analysed the impact of different disruption scenarios related to food supply chains and food security. It also outlines a potential methodological framework for future food security stress testing. Two main methodological approaches emerge: quantitative models, which provide more precise and measurable insights but involve trade-offs between model complexity and the scale, scope and detail of the food supply chain and food security dimensions they can cover; and qualitative, expert-based approaches, which offer broader, more holistic perspectives of food systems and food security but typically lack quantification. The report also discusses data issues, interdependencies, vulnerabilities, and the strengths and limitations of different stress tests. Given the constraints of quantitative models, a qualitative, expert-based approach, supported by quantitative data, could address more comprehensively the main components of food security. This could involve two expert groups – a technical expert group for analysis and a stakeholder expert group for sectoral insights – working iteratively to integrate expert judgement with empirical evidence to ensure more effective stress testing and policy formulation."