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Causality and error correction in Markov chain: Inflation in India revisited

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  • N. Vijayamohanan Pillai

    () (Centre for Development Studies)

Abstract

The present paper proposes certain statistical tests, both conceptually simple and computationally easy, for analysing state-specific prima facie probabilistic causality and error correction mechanism in the context of a Markov chain of time series data arranged in a contingency table of present versus previous states. It thus shows that error correction necessarily follows causality (that is temporal dependence) or vice versa, suggesting apparently that the two represent the same aspect! The result is applied to an analysis of inflation in India during the last three decades separately and also together based on the monthly general price level (WPI - all commodities) and 23 constituent groups/items, as well as on the three consumer price index (CPI) numbers.

Suggested Citation

  • N. Vijayamohanan Pillai, 2004. "Causality and error correction in Markov chain: Inflation in India revisited," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 366, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
  • Handle: RePEc:ind:cdswpp:366
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Andras Brody, 2000. "The Monetary Multiplier," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 215-219.
    6. Masson, Paul R., 2001. "Exchange rate regime transitions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 571-586, April.
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    8. Tsiang, S C, 1978. "The Diffusion of Reserves and the Money Supply Multiplier," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(350), pages 269-284, June.
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    11. repec:ags:ersaer:145843 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov chain; Steady state probability; India; Inflation; Return period;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General

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