IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imk/report/106-2015.html

Deutsche Konjunktur trotz globaler Unsicherheit aufwärtsgerichtet

Author

Listed:
  • Gustav A. Horn

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Jan Behringer

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Alexander Herzog-Stein

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Peter Hohlfeld

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Fabian Lindner

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Katja Rietzler

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Sabine Stephan

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Thomas Theobald

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

  • Silke Tober

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK))

Abstract

Die Weltwirtschaft befindet sich auf einem verhaltenen Wachstumskurs. Während sich in den USA die konjunkturelle Dynamik spürbar beschleunigt, kommt es in den meisten Schwellenländern zu einer Abschwächung des Wachstums. Im Euroraum dürfte sich, bei merklich verlangsamter Haushaltskonsolidierung, der Erholungskurs fortsetzen. Das Wachstum im Euroraum außerhalb Deutschlands beträgt im Jahr 2015 1,3 % (2016: 1,8 %).In Deutschland bleibt die Konjunktur im Prognosezeitraum trotz globaler Unsicherheit weiterhin aufwärtsgerichtet. Dabei wird verstärkt die Binnennachfrage für ein stabiles Wachstum sorgen. Insbesondere werden die privaten Konsumausgaben bei abermals deutlich steigenden Realeinkommen sowie der weiterhin positiven Arbeitsmarktentwicklung einen maßgeblichen Beitrag leisten. Auch die Investitionen werden von zunehmender Bedeutung sein. Der Anstieg des Bruttoinlandsprodukts wird im Jahresdurchschnitt 2015 1,8 % betragen (2016: 2,0%). Die Arbeitslosenquote beträgt 6,4 % (2016: 6,3 %) und die Verbraucherpreise steigen nur um 0,4 % (2016: 1,4 %).Höchste Priorität der Wirtschaftspolitik sollten alle Maßnahmen haben, die dazu beitragen, die nach wie vor schwelende Krise des Euroraums zu überwinden. Dazu gehört, neben der weiterhin expansiven Geldpolitik, dass die Fiskalpolitik verstärkt öffentliche Investitionen durchführt.

Suggested Citation

  • Gustav A. Horn & Jan Behringer & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Peter Hohlfeld & Fabian Lindner & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober, 2015. "Deutsche Konjunktur trotz globaler Unsicherheit aufwärtsgerichtet," IMK Report 106-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:report:106-2015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_imk_report_106_2015.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Katja Rietzler, 2014. "Anhaltender Verfall der Infrastruktur," IMK Report 94-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Achim Truger, 2015. "Implementing the golden rule for public investment in Europe," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 138, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    3. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2015. "The Costs of Greece's Fiscal Consolidation," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 84(3), pages 47-59.
    5. Gustav Horn & Sebastian Gechert & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Ansgar Rannenberg & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober, 2015. "Wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderungen 2015," IMK Report 102-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Gustav A. Horn & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Ansgar Rannenberg & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober & Rudolf Zwiener, 2014. "Wirtschaftspolitische Herausforderungen 2014," IMK Report 90-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober & Emanuel List, 2015. "Finanzmarktstabilität in Zeiten unkonventioneller Geldpolitik," IMK Report 107-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    8. Palme, Joakim, 2013. "Unemployment Benefits in EU Member States," Working Paper Series, Center for Labor Studies 2013:15, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andreas Peichl & Martin Ungerer & Richard Hauser & Stefan Sell & Judith Niehues & Christoph Schröder & Dorothee Spannagel & Anita Tiefensee & Helmut Dedy & Gerhard Bosch & Thorsten Kalina, 2017. "Mythos oder Realität: Werden die Armen immer ärmer und die Reichen immer reicher?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(10), pages 03-26, May.
    2. Alexander Herzog-Stein & Heike Joebges & Torsten Niechoj & Ulrike Stein & Rudolf Zwiener, 2015. "German labour costs have risen only moderately," IMK Report 109e-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gustav A. Horn & Sebastian Gechert & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Peter Hohlfeld & Fabian Lindner & Ansgar Rannenberg & Sabine Stephan & Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober, 2015. "Im Aufschwung - Prognose der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 2015/2016," IMK Report 104-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Gustav A. Horn & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Peter Hohlfeld & Fabian Lindner & Ansgar Rannenberg & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober, 2014. "Der gefährdete Aufschwung - Prognose der Wirtschafzlichen Entwicklung 2014/2015," IMK Report 98-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    3. repec:osf:socarx:97xzj_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Achim Truger, 2015. "Implementing the golden rule for public investment in Europe," Working Paper Reihe der AK Wien - Materialien zu Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft 138, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik.
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5pfme3a0o79o9qd1ar3utmgrff is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Philipp Heimberger, 2020. "The dynamic effects of fiscal consolidation episodes on income inequality: evidence for 17 OECD countries over 1978–2013," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 53-81, February.
    7. Rannenberg, Ansgar & Schoder, Christian & Strasky, Jan, 2015. "The macroeconomic effects of the Euro Area's fiscal consolidation," Economic Letters 10/EL/15, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. Hans Pitlik & Michael Klien & Stefan Schiman-Vukan, 2017. "Stabilitätskonforme Berücksichtigung nachhaltiger öffentlicher Investitionen," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 60595, August.
    9. Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2021. "Vers une réforme des règles budgétaires dans la zone euro ?," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03474871, HAL.
    10. Léo Aparisi de Lannoy & Xavier Ragot, 2017. "Une (ré) assurance chômage européenne," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-03455381, HAL.
    11. Peter Hohlfeld & Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan & Thomas Theobald & Silke Tober & Sebastian Watzka, 2017. "Aufschwung breit aufgestellt! Prognose-Update: Die konjunkturelle Lage in Deutschland zur Jahreswende 2017/2018," IMK Report 132-2017, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    12. Ekaterina Pyltsyna, 2018. "The Change Of Fiscal Multiplier When Switching From Managed Exchange Rate Regime To Thefloating One," HSE Working papers WP BRP 206/EC/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    13. Dirk Ehnts & Michael Paetz, 2021. "COVID-19 and its economic consequences for the Euro Area," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 227-249, June.
    14. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    15. Claudius Gräbner & Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller, 2019. "Economic Polarisation in Europe: Causes and Options for Action," wiiw Research Reports 440, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    16. Baumann, Ursel & Lodge, David & Miescu, Mirela S., 2019. "Global growth on life support? The contributions of fiscal and monetary policy since the global financial crisis," Working Paper Series 2248, European Central Bank.
    17. Jakob Kapeller & Claudius Graebner & Philipp Heimberger, 2019. "Economic Polarisation in Europe: Causes and Policy Options," ICAE Working Papers 99, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    18. Stefan Bach & Hogler Bär & Katharina Bohnenberger & Sebastian Dullien & Claudia Kemfert & Miriam Rehm & Katja Rietzler & Matthias Runkel & Sophie Schmalz & Silke Tober & Achim Truger, 2020. "Sozial-ökologisch ausgerichtete Konjunkturpolitik in und nach der Corona-Krise," IMK Studies 68-2020, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    19. Jocelyn Maillard, 2020. "Heterogeneity, Rigidity and Convergence of Labor Markets in the Euro Area," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 140, pages 127-167.
    20. Philipp Heimberger, 2017. "Österreichs Staatsausgabenstrukturen im europäischen Vergleich," wiiw Research Reports in German language 8, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    21. Jordan Roulleau-Pasdeloup, 2016. "The Government Spending Multiplier in a Deep Recession," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 16.22, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    22. Munkacsi, Zsuzsa, 2015. "Fiscal austerity, unemployment and family firms," Discussion Papers 06/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imk:report:106-2015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sabine Nemitz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imkhbde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.