IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imk/fmmpap/117-2025.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Kuznets curve versus cycles: rethinking the determination and long-run evolution of income distribution

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Palley

    (Economics for Democratic and Opens Societies)

Abstract

This paper presents a theory and model of long-run cycles in income inequality. The model explains the historical pattern of income distribution identified by Kuznets (1955) and Piketty (2014). It breaks with conventional marginal product theory which claims functional income distribution is determined by the technological conditions of production. Instead, it emphasizes the role of socio-political forces that shape and drive fluctuations in the level of popular political organizations, which then impact distribution. That impact includes assessment and attribution of productivity contributions. The model provides a framework for interpreting the historical evolution of income distribution and inequality, and for reflecting on current conditions and possible future developments. The core message is twofold. First, socio-political developments matter for income distribution. Second, if those developments are cyclical, income distribution will also exhibit cyclicality.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Palley, 2025. "The Kuznets curve versus cycles: rethinking the determination and long-run evolution of income distribution," FMM Working Paper 117-2025, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:imk:fmmpap:117-2025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.boeckler.de/pdf/p_fmm_imk_wp_117_2025.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastian Gechert & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2022. "Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 55-82, July.
    2. Thomas I. Palley, 1996. "Out of the Closet: The Political Economy of Neo-classical Distribution Theory," Review of Radical Political Economics, Union for Radical Political Economics, vol. 28(3), pages 57-67, September.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson, 2000. "Why Did the West Extend the Franchise? Democracy, Inequality, and Growth in Historical Perspective," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(4), pages 1167-1199.
    4. Samuel Bowles & Herbert Gintis, 1990. "Contested Exchange: New Microfoundations for the Political Economy of Capitalism," Politics & Society, , vol. 18(2), pages 165-222, June.
    5. Thomas Piketty & Emmanuel Saez, 2003. "Income Inequality in the United States, 1913–1998," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 1-41.
    6. Palley, Thomas I. & LaJeunesse, Robert M., 2007. "Social attitudes, labor law, and union organizing: Toward a new economics of union density," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 237-254, February.
    7. Burgin, Angus, 2012. "The Great Persuasion: Reinventing Free Markets since the Depression," Economics Books, Harvard University Press, number 9780674058132, march.
    8. Sebastian Gechert & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Dominika Kolcunova, 2022. "Measuring Capital-Labor Substitution: The Importance of Method Choices and Publication Bias," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 55-82, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Trenczek, Jan & Wacker, Konstantin M., 2023. "Human Capital Misallocation and Output per Worker Differences: Beyond Cobb-Douglas," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1331, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    2. Thomas de Graaff & Elisa Panzera & Henri L. F. de Groot, 2025. "Going the distance? A meta-analysis of the deterring effect of distance in tourism," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 25-031/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Takuma Kunieda & Akihisa Shibata, 2024. "Insurance against Aggregate Shocks," ISER Discussion Paper 1239, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    4. Florio, Erminia & Kharazi, Aicha, 2022. "Curtailment of Economic Activity and Labor Inequalities," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1166, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    5. Amaresh K Tiwari, 2023. "Automation In An Open, Catching-Up Economy: Aggregate And Microeconometric Evidence," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 144, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    6. Schuster, Florian & Krahé, Max & Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa & Leusder, Dominik, 2021. "The cyclical component of the debt brake: Analysis and a reform proposal," Papers 277890, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    7. Schuster, Florian & Krahé, Max & Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa, 2021. "Wird die Konjunkturkomponente der Schuldenbremse in ihrer heutigen Ausgestaltung ihrer Aufgabe noch gerecht? Analyse und ein Reformvorschlag," Papers 277885, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    8. Ken-ichi Hashimoto & Ryonghun Im & Takuma Kunieda & Akihisa Shibata, 2025. "Relative Risk Aversion and Business Fluctuations," ISER Discussion Paper 1272, Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka.
    9. Max Krahé & Florian Schuster & Philippa Sigl-Glöckner, 2021. "Wird die Konjunkturkomponente der Schuldenbremse ihrer Aufgabe noch gerecht? [Is the Cyclical Component of the Debt Brake Still Up to Its Task?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 101(8), pages 621-628, August.
    10. Gechert, Sebastian & Heimberger, Philipp, 2022. "Do corporate tax cuts boost economic growth?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    11. Yang, Fan & Havranek, Tomas & Irsova, Zuzana & Novak, Jiri, 2022. "Hedge Fund Performance: A Quantitative Survey," EconStor Preprints 260612, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. Challe, Edouard & Matvieiev, Mykhailo, 2024. "On natural interest rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    13. Zuzana Irsova & Hristos Doucouliagos & Tomas Havranek & T. D. Stanley, 2024. "Meta‐analysis of social science research: A practitioner's guide," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(5), pages 1547-1566, December.
    14. Balcazar Salazar,Carlos Felipe, 2015. "Long-run effects of democracy on income inequality : evidence from repeated cross-sections," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7153, The World Bank.
    15. Pan, Yuling & Dong, Feng, 2023. "Factor substitution and development path of the new energy market in the BRICS countries under carbon neutrality: Inspirations from developed European countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    16. Hashimoto, Ken-ichi & Im, Ryonghun & Kunieda, Takuma & Shibata, Akihisa, 2022. "Financial destabilization," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    17. Amar Anwar & Ichiro Iwasaki, 2022. "Institutions and FDI from BRICS countries: a meta-analytic review," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 417-468, July.
    18. Tersoo David Iorngurum, 2023. "Method Versus Cross-Country Heterogeneity in the Exchange Rate Pass-Through," Working Papers IES 2023/16, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised May 2023.
    19. Gric, Zuzana & Bajzík, Josef & Badura, Ondřej, 2023. "Does sentiment affect stock returns? A meta-analysis across survey-based measures," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    20. Arthur Jacobs, 2023. "Capitalist-Worker Wealth Distribution in a Task-Based Model of Automation," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 23/1064, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imk:fmmpap:117-2025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sabine Nemitz (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fmbocde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.