IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/imf/imfwpa/2015-242.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

End of the Supercycle and Growth of Commodity Producers: The Case of Chile

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Luc Eyraud

Abstract

This paper estimates the effect of copper prices on Chile’s growth at various time horizons. We find that a price decline is likely to have a durable (although not permanent) effect on GDP growth: while the impact is the strongest in the first 3 years after the shock, the transition towards the new lower steady-state GDP level generally takes 5–10 years. From a production function perspective, the GDP growth slowdown is mainly driven by lower capital accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Luc Eyraud, 2015. "End of the Supercycle and Growth of Commodity Producers: The Case of Chile," IMF Working Papers 2015/242, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/242
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.aspx?sk=43412
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Philippe Aghion & Diego Comin & Peter Howitt & Isabel Tecu, 2016. "When Does Domestic Savings Matter for Economic Growth?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 381-407, August.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2011. "A Solution to Overoptimistic Forecasts and Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Scholarly Articles 4723209, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    4. David S. Jacks, 2019. "From boom to bust: a typology of real commodity prices in the long run," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 13(2), pages 201-220, May.
    5. Cyrille Schwellnus, 2010. "Chile: Boosting Productivity Growth by Strengthening Competition, Entrepreneurship and Innovation," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 785, OECD Publishing.
    6. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2011. "Natural Resources: Curse or Blessing?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(2), pages 366-420, June.
    7. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner & Andrés Yany, 2015. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Investment in Commodity-Exporting Economies," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Rodrigo Caputo & Roberto Chang (ed.),Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Policy, edition 1, volume 22, chapter 5, pages 135-193, Central Bank of Chile.
    8. Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 2009. "The Economics of Growth," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262012634, December.
    9. Erten, Bilge & Ocampo, José Antonio, 2013. "Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-30.
    10. Andrea Repetto & Alejandro Micco, 2012. "Productivity, Misallocation and the Labor Market," Working Papers wp_020, Adolfo Ibáñez University, School of Government.
    11. Collier, Paul & Goderis, Benedikt, 2012. "Commodity prices and growth: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1241-1260.
    12. Jeffrey Frankel, 2013. "A Solution to Fiscal Procyclicality: The Structural Budget Institutions Pioneered by Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Luis Felipe Céspedes & Jordi Galí (ed.),Fiscal Policy and Macroeconomic Performance, edition 1, volume 17, chapter 9, pages 323-391, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Ireland: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/077, International Monetary Fund.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Hungary: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/092, International Monetary Fund.
    15. -, 2009. "Economic growth in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38668, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Singapore: Staff Report for 2015 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/199, International Monetary Fund.
    17. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Panama: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/237, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1986. "Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics: The Overshooting Model," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(2), pages 344-348.
    19. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "Chile: Staff Report for the 2015 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/227, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Roman Grynberg & Teresa Kaulihowa & Fwasa K Singogo, 2019. "Structural Changes of the 21st Century and their Impact on the Gold Price," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 11(3), pages 72-83.
    2. Patrick Blagrave & Marika Santoro, 2016. "Estimating Potential Output in Chile: A Multivariate Filter for Mining and Non-Mining Sectors," IMF Working Papers 2016/201, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Medina, Juan Pablo, 2021. "Mining development and macroeconomic spillovers in Chile," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zaman, Gheorghe & Georgescu, George, 2016. "Provocări în perioada tranziției la economia de piață în România. Creșterea gradului de îndatorare externă și internă [Challenges facing Romania during the period of transition to a market-based ec," MPRA Paper 70740, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Wagner, Prof. Dr. Helmut, 2016. "The Building Up of New Imbalances in China: The Dilemma with ‘Rebalancing’," MPRA Paper 71494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Barseghyan, Gayane, 2019. "Sanctions and counter-sanctions : What did they do?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    4. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    5. Mr. Sergi Lanau & Petia Topalova, 2016. "The Impact of Product Market Reforms on Firm Productivity in Italy," IMF Working Papers 2016/119, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ana Martinis & Igor Ljubaj, 2017. "Corporate Debt Overhang in Croatia: Micro Assessment and Macro Implications," Working Papers 51, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 2016. "International Coordination," NBER Working Papers 21878, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung, 2018. "Comparing budget repair measures for a small open economy with growing debt," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 162-183.
    9. Miroslav Nedelchev, 2018. "Reforms Of Banking Supervision In Bulgaria," Economics and Management, Faculty of Economics, SOUTH-WEST UNIVERSITY "NEOFIT RILSKI", BLAGOEVGRAD, vol. 14(1), pages 125-134.
    10. International Monetary Fund, 2015. "The Gambia: 2015 Article IV Consultation-Press release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Gambia," IMF Staff Country Reports 2015/272, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ahn, Daniel P. & Ludema, Rodney D., 2020. "The sword and the shield: The economics of targeted sanctions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    12. Mariana Colacelli & Emilio Fernández Corugedo, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Japan’s Demographics: Can Structural Reforms Reverse Them?," IMF Working Papers 2018/248, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Andreea-Emanuela Drăgoi & Dorina Clichici, 2017. "The USA and the Russian Federation: What’s next in the post-sanctions era," Global Economic Observer, "Nicolae Titulescu" University of Bucharest, Faculty of Economic Sciences;Institute for World Economy of the Romanian Academy, vol. 5(1), pages 54-65, June.
    14. Zharku Lutfi, 2018. "Irregular Receipts Leading to Budget Deficits in Kosovo," Baltic Journal of Real Estate Economics and Construction Management, Sciendo, vol. 6(1), pages 100-115, August.
    15. Charles Abuka & Ronnie K. Alinda & Camelia Minoiu & Jose-Luis Peydro & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2015. "Monetary Policy in a Developing Country: Loan Applications and Real Effects," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 114, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    16. Wagner, Helmut, 2016. "The building up of new imbalances in China: The dilemma with 'rebalancing'," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 3/2016, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS).
    17. Iikka Korhonen & Heli Simola & Laura Solanko, 2018. "Sanctions and countersanctions − effects on economy, trade and finance," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q3-18, pages 68-76.
    18. Zharku Lutfi, 2018. "(Un)Productive Use of Public Debt in Kosovo," Ekonomika (Economics), Sciendo, vol. 97(2), pages 18-37, December.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2019_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Hyun-Hoon Lee & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2017. "Effects of China's Structural Change on the Exports of East Asian Economies," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(3), pages 1-30, May.
    21. Mr. Alexei P Kireyev & Andrei Leonidov, 2016. "China’s Imports Slowdown: Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks," IMF Working Papers 2016/051, International Monetary Fund.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/242. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Akshay Modi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/imfffus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.