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Disentangling India’s Investment Slowdown

Author

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  • Rahul Anand
  • Mr. Volodymyr Tulin

Abstract

This paper documents the recent slowdown in investment in India and explores its underlying causes. The sharp investment deceleration has sparked an intense debate about the role of interest rates, as well as business confidence and economic policy uncertainty. Our results suggest that while explaining aggregate investment activity better than nominal interest rates, real interest rates account for only one quarter of the explained investment downturn. In addition, standard macro-financial variables do not fully explain the recent investment slump. Using a new measure of economic policy uncertainty, the results suggest that heightened uncertainty and deteriorating business confidence have played a key role in the recent investment slowdown.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahul Anand & Mr. Volodymyr Tulin, 2014. "Disentangling India’s Investment Slowdown," IMF Working Papers 2014/047, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2014/047
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ms. Nan Geng & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye, 2012. "Determinants of Corporate Investment in China: Evidence From Cross-Country Firm Level Data," IMF Working Papers 2012/080, International Monetary Fund.
    2. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arbatli Saxegaard, Elif C. & Davis, Steven J. & Ito, Arata & Miake, Naoko, 2022. "Policy uncertainty in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    2. Jagannath Mallick, 2019. "The effects of government investment shocks on private investment: Empirical evidence from the developing economy," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 291-316, December.

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