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After the Crisis: Assessing the Damage in Italy

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  • Ms. Silvia Sgherri
  • Mrs. Hanan Morsy

Abstract

Italy’s deep-rooted structural problems resulted in an unsatisfactory productivity performance and a dismal growth over the last 15 years. The global financial crisis has exacerbated these long-standing weaknesses, taking a heavy toll on Italy’s economy. With output back to its end-2001 level, Italy’s output losses associated with the crisis have been, thus far, about 132 billion of 2000 euro (around 10 percent of precrisis 1998 - 2004 real GDP). About three quarters of these losses are estimated to be due to a shortfall in potential output. Potential output is not expected to rebound to its precrisis trend over the medium term, even though growth is projected to do so within the next two years. In the short-run, the decline in output is mainly accounted for by a collapse in productivity; in the medium term, employment and capital are also likely to be affected, with implications for the longer-term growth and fiscal outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Silvia Sgherri & Mrs. Hanan Morsy, 2010. "After the Crisis: Assessing the Damage in Italy," IMF Working Papers 2010/244, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/244
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2005. "Long-Run Productivity Shifts and Cyclical Fluctuations: Evidence for Italy," IMF Working Papers 2005/228, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Ian Dew-Becker & Robert J. Gordon, 2008. "The Role of Labor Market Changes in the Slowdown of European Productivity Growth," NBER Working Papers 13840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    3. Kolluru Mythili & Hyams-Ssekasi Denis & Rao K.V.Ch.Madhu Sudhana, 2021. "A Study of Global Recession Recovery Strategies in Highly Ranked GDP EU Countries," Economics, Sciendo, vol. 9(1), pages 85-105, June.
    4. Philipp an de Meulen & Torsten Schmidt, 2013. "Von der Euroeinführung zur Schuldenkrise: Ergebnisse einer Wachstumszerlegung für ausgewählte Länder des Euroraums," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 82(2), pages 77-96.
    5. Sanjay Sehgal & Payal Jain & Florent Deisting, 2018. "Information Transmission between Mature and Emerging Equity Markets During Normal and Crisis Periods: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 16(1), pages 185-225, March.
    6. Belloc, Filippo & D’Antoni, Massimo, 2020. "The Elusive Effect of Employment Protection on Labor Turnover," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-25.

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