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Post-Crisis Slow Recovery and Monetary Policy

Author

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  • Daisuke Ikeda

    (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: daisuke.ikeda@boj.or.jp))

  • Takushi Kurozumi

    (Director and Senior Economist, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: takushi.kurozumi@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis and subsequent recession, slow recoveries have been observed and slowdowns in total factor productivity (TFP) growth have been measured in many economies. This paper develops a model that can describe a slow recovery resulting from an adverse financial shock in the presence of an endogenous mechanism of TFP growth, and examines how monetary policy should react to the financial shock in terms of social welfare. It is shown that in the face of the financial shocks, a welfare-maximizing monetary policy rule features a strong response to output, and the welfare gain from output stabilization is much more substantial than in the model where TFP growth is exogenously given. Moreover, compared with the welfare-maximizing rule, a strict inflation or price-level targeting rule induces a sizable welfare loss because it has no response to output, whereas a nominal GDP growth or level targeting rule performs well, although it causes high interest-rate volatility. In the presence of the endogenous TFP growth mechanism, it is crucial to take into account a welfare loss from a permanent decline in consumption caused by a slowdown in TFP growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Daisuke Ikeda & Takushi Kurozumi, 2014. "Post-Crisis Slow Recovery and Monetary Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 14-E-16, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:14-e-16
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Garga, Vaishali & Singh, Sanjay R., 2021. "Output hysteresis and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 871-886.
    2. Michael Redmond & Willem Van Zandweghe, 2016. "The Lasting Damage from the Financial Crisis to U.S. Productivity," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-3, March.
    3. Andrew Foerster & Troy Davig, 2017. "Communicating Monetary Policy Rules," 2017 Meeting Papers 1133, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Marco Luca Pinchetti, 2017. "Creative Destruction Cycles: Schumpeterian Growth in an Estimated DSGE Model," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2017-04, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    5. Hartwig, Benny & Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2020. "Monetary policy, firm exit and productivity," Discussion Papers 61/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Micheli, Martin, 2018. "Endogenous growth and the Taylor principle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 1-4.
    7. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Daichi Shirai, 2012. "Debt-Ridden Borrowers and Productivity Slowdown," CIGS Working Paper Series 14-005E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    8. Schumacher, Malte D. & Żochowski, Dawid, 2017. "The risk premium channel and long-term growth," Working Paper Series 2114, European Central Bank.
    9. Kang, Kee-Youn & Jang, Inkee, 2020. "Dynamic Adverse Selection and Belief Update in Credit Markets," MPRA Paper 99071, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Hasumi, Ryo & Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Nakamura, Daisuke, 2017. "R&D Growth and Business Cycles Measured with an Endogenous Growth DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 85525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Hasumi, Ryo & Iiboshi, Hirokuni & Nakamura, Daisuke, 2018. "Trends, cycles and lost decades: Decomposition from a DSGE model with endogenous growth," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 9-28.
    12. Pierre L. Siklos, 2020. "Looking into the Rear-View Mirror: Lessons from Japan for the Eurozone and the U.S?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    13. Sohei Kaihatsu & Maiko Koga & Tomoya Sakata & Naoko Hara, 2019. "Interaction between Business Cycles and Economic Growth," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 37, pages 99-126, November.
    14. Pinchetti, Marco, 2020. "What Is Driving The TFP Slowdown? Insights From a Schumpeterian DSGE Model," MPRA Paper 98316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ryo Horii & Yoshiyasu Ono, 2020. "Financial Crisis and Slow Recovery with Bayesian Learning Agents," ISER Discussion Paper 1085, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    16. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Daichi Shirai, 2017. "Debt-Ridden Borrowers and Economic Slowdown," CIGS Working Paper Series 17-002E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    17. Willem Van Zandweghe, 2015. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Aggregate Supply," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 31-56.
    18. Kosuke Aoki & Naoko Hara & Maiko Koga, 2017. "Structural Reforms, Innovation and Economic Growth," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-2, Bank of Japan.
    19. Francesca Vinci & Omar Licandro, 2021. "Switching-Track after the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 9107, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial shock; Endogenous TFP growth; Slow recovery; Monetary policy; Welfare cost of business cycle;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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