Financial Markets Forecasts Revisited: Are they Rational, Herding or Bold?
We test whether professional forecasters forecast rationally or behaviorally using a unique database, QSS Database, which is the monthly panel of forecasts on Japanese stock prices and bond yields. The estimation results show that (i) professional forecasts are behavioral, namely, significantly influenced by past forecasts, (ii) there exists a stock-bond dissonance: while forecasting behavior in the stock market seems to be herding, that in the bond market seems to be bold in the sense that their current forecasts tend to be negatively related to past forecasts, and (iii) the dissonance is due, at least partially, to the individual forecasters f behavior that is influenced by their own past forecasts rather than others f. Even in the same country, forecasting behavior is quite different by market.
|Date of creation:||May 2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 2-1-1 Nihonbashi, Hongoku-cho, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 103|
Web page: http://www.imes.boj.or.jp/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alan Beggs & Kathryn Graddy, 2009. "Anchoring Effects: Evidence from Art Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1027-1039, June.
- Andreas Park & Hamid Sabourian, 2011.
"Herding and Contrarian Behavior in Financial Markets,"
Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 973-1026, 07.
- Park, A. & Sabourian, H., 2009. "Herding and Contrarian Behaviour in Financial Markets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0939, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Hibiki Ichiue & Tomonori Yuyama, 2009. "Using Survey Data to Correct the Bias in Policy Expectations Extracted from Fed Funds Futures," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(8), pages 1631-1647, December.
- Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
- Chamley,Christophe P., 2004. "Rational Herds," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521530927.
- Tilman Ehrbeck & Robert Waldmann, 1996. "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(1), pages 21-40.
- Chamley,Christophe P., 2004. "Rational Herds," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521824019.
- Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Amit Solomon, 2000. "Security Analysts' Career Concerns and Herding of Earnings Forecasts," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 31(1), pages 121-144, Spring. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)