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Fundamentals, Misvaluation, and Investment. The Real Story

Author

Listed:
  • Chirinko, Robert S.

    (Department of Economics, Emory University)

  • Schaller, Huntley

    (Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria and Department of Economics, Carleton University)

Abstract

Is real investment fully determined by fundamentals or is it sometimes affected by stockmarket misvaluation? We introduce three new tests that: measure the reaction of investment to sales shocks for firms that may be overvalued; use Fama-MacBeth regressions to determine whether "overinvestment" affects subsequent returns; and analyze the time path of the marginal product of capital in reaction to fundamental and misvaluation shocks. Besides these qualitative tests, we introduce a measure of misvaluation into standard investment equations to estimate the quantitative effect of misvaluation on investment. Overall, the evidence suggests that both fundamental and misvaluation shocks affect investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Chirinko, Robert S. & Schaller, Huntley, 2006. "Fundamentals, Misvaluation, and Investment. The Real Story," Economics Series 200, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:ihs:ihsesp:200
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    File URL: https://irihs.ihs.ac.at/id/eprint/1744
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cecchetti, Stephen G., 2006. "The Brave new World of Central Banking: Polcy Challenges posed by Asset Price Booms and Busts," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 196, pages 107-119, April.
    2. Stein, Jeremy C, 1996. "Rational Capital Budgeting in an Irrational World," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 69(4), pages 429-455, October.
    3. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 2000. "Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Are Not Valid Measures of Financing Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(2), pages 707-712.
    4. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Murillo Campello & John Graham, 2007. "Do Stock Prices Influence Corporate Decisions? Evidence from the Technology Bubble," NBER Working Papers 13640, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tarek A. Hassan & Thomas M. Mertens, 2017. "The Social Cost of Near-Rational Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1059-1103, April.
    3. Stefano DellaVigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2009. "Capital Budgeting vs. Market Timing: An Evaluation Using Demographics," NBER Working Papers 15184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Krainer, Robert E., 2013. "Towards a program for financial stability," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 207-218.
    5. Krainer, Robert, 2009. "Portfolio and financing adjustments for U.S. banks: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 1-24, January.
    6. Dong, Ming & Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2007. "Stock market misvaluation and corporate investment," MPRA Paper 3109, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 May 2007.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investment; Stock market; Fundamentals; Misvaluation; Bubbles; Real effects of financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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