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El envejecimiento y las oportunidades económicas: las principales regiones del mundo al final del siglo

  • Jere R. Behrman
  • Suzanne Duryea
  • Miguel Székely

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) En este trabajo se presentan nuevos elementos de juicio sobre las principales regiones del mundo y los países más poblados de cada región, y las relaciones entre las edades promedio de esas poblaciones y tres grupos de resultados económicos: 1) agregados macroeconómicos (ahorro doméstico como proporción del PIB, PIB per cápita, capital por trabajador e ingresos tributarios como porcentaje del PIB); 2) gasto gubernamental en educación y salud, y 3) indicadores sociales (desigualdad, desempleo, índice de homicidios y niveles de avance en la enseñanza). Los resultados sugieren que las variables que se han tomado en cuenta siguen patrones claros relacionados con la edad, que esos patrones difieren de una región a otra y que difieren según regímenes distintos de políticas relacionadas con la apertura del comercio, la profundización de los mercados financieros nacionales y la inestabilidad macroeconómica. Los elementos de juicio se corresponden con la posibilidad de que algunos cambios de la estructura etaria puedan promover condiciones favorables para el desarrollo. Regiones tales como el Este de Asia aparentemente han conseguido aprovechar esta oportunidad demográfica en las últimas décadas. No obstante, en otras regiones, tales como América Latina y el Caribe, que está a punto de experimentar los mayores cambios de la estructura etaria en las próximas décadas, la creación de un entorno económico adecuado para traducir la oportunidad en mejores niveles de vida para su población ha constituido un reto formidable.

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Paper provided by Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department in its series Research Department Publications with number 4181.

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Date of creation: Sep 1999
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Handle: RePEc:idb:wpaper:4181
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