IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hum/wpaper/sfb649dp2008-062.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Nonlinear Modeling of Target Leverage with Latent Determinant Variables – New Evidence on the Trade-off Theory

Author

Listed:
  • Ralf Sabiwalsky

Abstract

The trade-off theory on capital structure is tested by modelling the capital structure target as the solution to a maximization problem. This solution maps asset volatility and loss given default to optimal leverage. By applying nonlinear structural equation modelling, these unobservable variables are estimated based on observable indicator variables, and simultaneously, the speed of adjustment towards this leverage target is estimated. Linear specifications of the leverage target suffer from overlap between the predictions of various theories on capital structure about the sign and significance of determinants. In contrast, the framework applied here allows for a direct test: results confirm the trade-off theory for small and medium-sized firms, but not for large firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Ralf Sabiwalsky, 2008. "Nonlinear Modeling of Target Leverage with Latent Determinant Variables – New Evidence on the Trade-off Theory," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-062, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-062
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2008-062.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bassam Fattouh & Laurence Harris & Pasquale Scaramozzino, 2008. "Non-linearity in the determinants of capital structure: evidence from UK firms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, June.
    2. Eugene F. Fama, 2002. "Testing Trade-Off and Pecking Order Predictions About Dividends and Debt," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(1), pages 1-33, March.
    3. Flannery, Mark J. & Rangan, Kasturi P., 2006. "Partial adjustment toward target capital structures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 469-506, March.
    4. Felix Lopez-Iturriaga & Juan Antonio Rodriguez-Sanz, 2008. "Capital structure and institutional setting: a decompositional and international analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(14), pages 1851-1864.
    5. Sik-Yum Lee & Hong-Tu Zhu, 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of nonlinear structural equation models," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 189-210, June.
    6. de Jong, Abe & Kabir, Rezaul & Nguyen, Thuy Thu, 2008. "Capital structure around the world: The roles of firm- and country-specific determinants," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1954-1969, September.
    7. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1995. "What Do We Know about Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1421-1460, December.
    8. Hsiao-Tien Pao & Yao-Yu Chih, 2005. "Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Models for Panel Data Forecasting: Debt Policy in Taiwan," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(03), pages 525-541.
    9. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R., 2001. "The theory and practice of corporate finance: evidence from the field," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 187-243, May.
    10. Antoniou, Antonios & Guney, Yilmaz & Paudyal, Krishna, 2008. "The Determinants of Capital Structure: Capital Market-Oriented versus Bank-Oriented Institutions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 59-92, March.
    11. Heitor Almeida & Thomas Philippon, 2007. "The Risk‐Adjusted Cost of Financial Distress," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(6), pages 2557-2586, December.
    12. Christian Habermann & Fabian Kindermann, 2007. "Multidimensional Spline Interpolation: Theory and Applications," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(2), pages 153-169, September.
    13. Titman, Sheridan & Wessels, Roberto, 1988. " The Determinants of Capital Structure Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 1-19, March.
    14. John R. Graham, 2000. "How Big Are the Tax Benefits of Debt?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1901-1941, October.
    15. Michael L. Lemmon & Michael R. Roberts & Jaime F. Zender, 2008. "Back to the Beginning: Persistence and the Cross‐Section of Corporate Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1575-1608, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sabiwalsky, Ralf, 2010. "Nonlinear modelling of target leverage with latent determinant variables -- new evidence on the trade-off theory," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 137-150, October.
    2. Ralf Sabiwalsky, 2010. "Nonlinear modelling of target leverage with latent determinant variables — new evidence on the trade‐off theory," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 137-150, October.
    3. Mário Santos & António Moreira & Elisabete Vieira, 2014. "Ownership concentration, contestability, family firms, and capital structure," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 18(4), pages 1063-1107, November.
    4. Yildirim, Ramazan & Masih, Mansur & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath, 2018. "Determinants of capital structure: evidence from Shari'ah compliant and non-compliant firms," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 198-219.
    5. Morais, Flávio & Serrasqueiro, Zélia & Ramalho, Joaquim J.S., 2022. "Capital structure speed of adjustment heterogeneity across zero leverage and leveraged European firms," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Mohamed, Hisham Hanifa & Masih, Mansur & Bacha, Obiyathulla I., 2015. "Why do issuers issue Sukuk or conventional bond? Evidence from Malaysian listed firms using partial adjustment models," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 233-252.
    7. Feld, Lars P. & Heckemeyer, Jost H. & Overesch, Michael, 2013. "Capital structure choice and company taxation: A meta-study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2850-2866.
    8. Huu Manh Nguyen & Thi Huong Giang Vuong & Thi Huong Nguyen & Yang-Che Wu & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "Sustainability of Both Pecking Order and Trade-Off Theories in Chinese Manufacturing Firms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-25, May.
    9. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2012. "Market timing, taxes and capital structure: evidence from Vietnam," OSF Preprints t3mvs, Center for Open Science.
    10. Quratulain Zafar & Winai Wongsurawat & David Camino, 2019. "The determinants of leverage decisions: Evidence from Asian emerging markets," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1598836-159, January.
    11. Amilcar A. Menichini, 2017. "On the value and determinants of the interest tax shields," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 725-748, April.
    12. Ebrahim, M. Shahid & Girma, Sourafel & Shah, M. Eskandar & Williams, Jonathan, 2014. "Dynamic capital structure and political patronage: The case of Malaysia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 117-128.
    13. Kayo, Eduardo K. & Kimura, Herbert, 2011. "Hierarchical determinants of capital structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 358-371, February.
    14. Iván Arribas & Emili Tortosa-Ausina & TingTing Zhu, 2021. "Optimal capital structure, model uncertainty, and European SMEs," Working Papers 2021/11, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    15. Elsas, Ralf & Florysiak, David, 2008. "Empirical Capital Structure Research: New Ideas, Recent Evidence, and Methodological Issues," Discussion Papers in Business Administration 4743, University of Munich, Munich School of Management.
    16. Viet Anh Dang, 2013. "Testing capital structure theories using error correction models: evidence from the UK, France and Germany," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 171-190, January.
    17. Belkhir, Mohamed & Maghyereh, Aktham & Awartani, Basel, 2016. "Institutions and corporate capital structure in the MENA region," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 99-129.
    18. Razali Haron & Khairunisah Ibrahim & Fauzias Mat Nor & Izani Ibrahim, 2013. "Factors Affecting Speed of Adjustment to Target Leverage: Malaysia Evidence," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 14(2), pages 243-262, June.
    19. Viet Anh Dang, 2011. "Testing Capital Structure Theories Using Error Correction Models: Evidence From The Uk, France And Germany," Post-Print hal-00732527, HAL.
    20. Kim, Tae-Nyun & Kim, Kihun, 2018. "External cost of leverage adjustment: Evidence from defined benefit pension plans," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-14.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital Structure; Nonlinear; Latent Variables; Trade-off Theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-062. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RDC-Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.