IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hum/wpaper/sfb649dp2008-054.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Natural Rate Hypothesis and Real Determinacy

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Meyer-Gohde

Abstract

The uniqueness of bounded local equilibria under interest rate rules is analyzed in a model with sticky information `a la Mankiw and Reis (2002). The main results are tighter bounds on monetary policy than in sticky-price models, irrelevance of the degree of output-gap targeting for determinacy, independence of determinacy regions from parameters outside the interest-rate rule, and equivalence between real determinacy in models satisfying the natural rate hypothesis and nominal determinacy in the associated full-information, flex-price equivalent. The analysis follows from boundedness considerations on the nonautonomous recursion that describe the MA(¥) representation of variables’ reaction to endogenous fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2008. "The Natural Rate Hypothesis and Real Determinacy," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-054
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2008-054.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lubik, Thomas A. & Marzo, Massimiliano, 2007. "An inventory of simple monetary policy rules in a New Keynesian macroeconomic model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 15-36.
    2. Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 2003. "The Performance of Forecast-Based Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 622-645, June.
    3. Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 429-480.
    4. Bennett McCallum, 1999. "Role of the Minimal State Variable Criterion in Rational Expectations Models," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 621-639, November.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    6. Benjamin D. Keen, 2007. "Sticky Price And Sticky Information Price‐Setting Models: What Is The Difference?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 770-786, October.
    7. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    8. McCallum, Bennett T., 2003. "Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1153-1175, July.
    9. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    10. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-254, April.
    11. Andres, Javier & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Nelson, Edward, 2005. "Sticky-price models and the natural rate hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 1025-1053, July.
    12. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    13. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A semi-classical model of price-level adjustment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 251-284, December.
    14. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
    15. Taylor, John B., 1986. "New econometric approaches to stabilization policy in stochastic models of macroeconomic fluctuations," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 34, pages 1997-2055, Elsevier.
    16. Trabandt, Mathias, 2003. "Sticky Information vs. Sticky Prices : A Horse Race in a DSGE Framework," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,41, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    17. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    18. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2010. "Linear rational-expectations models with lagged expectations: A synthetic method," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 984-1002, May.
    19. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Pitfalls of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 100-104, May.
    20. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2002. "Taylor Rules in a Model that Satisfies the Natural-Rate Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 79-84, May.
    21. Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Comment on: Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1177-1188, July.
    22. Fischer, Stanley, 1977. "Long-Term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(1), pages 191-205, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander & Tzaawa-Krenzler, Mary, 2023. "Sticky information and the Taylor principle," IMFS Working Paper Series 189, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    2. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander, 2010. "Linear rational-expectations models with lagged expectations: A synthetic method," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 984-1002, May.
    3. Michael Paetz, 2007. "Robust Control and Persistence in the New Keynesian Economy," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20711, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
    4. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Determinacy and Identification with Taylor Rules," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 565-615.
    5. Richard Mash, 2003. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Calvo-Taylor-Rule-of-Thumb Model and Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation," Economics Series Working Papers 174, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    6. Trabandt, Mathias, 2003. "Sticky Information vs. Sticky Prices : A Horse Race in a DSGE Framework," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,41, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    7. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jan-Oliver Menz & Lena Vogel, 2009. "A Detailed Derivation of the Sticky Price and Sticky Information New Keynesian DSGE Model," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200902, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
    9. Loisel, Olivier, 2021. "The implementation of stabilization policy," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(2), May.
    10. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 1439-1512, Elsevier.
    11. Leitemo, Kai, 2006. "Targeting inflation by forecast feedback rules in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 393-413, March.
    12. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
    15. Pengfei Wang & Yi Wen, 2006. "Solving linear difference systems with lagged expectations by a method of undetermined coefficients," Working Papers 2006-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    16. Wang, Pengfei & Wen, Yi, 2007. "Inflation dynamics: A cross-country investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 2004-2031, October.
    17. Annicchiarico, Barbara & Giammarioli, Nicola & Piergallini, Alessandro, 2012. "Budgetary policies in a DSGE model with finite horizons," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 111-130.
    18. Jensen, Christian, 2014. "Discretionary policy exploiting learning in a sticky-information model of the inflation-output trade-off: Bridging the gap to commitment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 150-158.
    19. Mr. Tamim Bayoumi & Ms. Silvia Sgherri, 2004. "Deconstructing the Art of Central Banking," IMF Working Papers 2004/195, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Andreas Schabert, "undated". "On the Equivalence of Money Growth and Interest Rate Policy," Working Papers 2003_6, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Apr 2003.
    21. Antonio Moreno, 2003. "Reaching Inflation Stability," Faculty Working Papers 13/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    22. Fair, Ray C., 2007. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 1, pages 1-52.
    23. Andres, Javier & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Nelson, Edward, 2005. "Sticky-price models and the natural rate hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 1025-1053, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonautonomous difference equations; Indeterminacy; Taylor rule; Sticky information; Sticky prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-054. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RDC-Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sohubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.