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The Natural Rate Hypothesis and Real Determinacy

  • Alexander Meyer-Gohde

The uniqueness of bounded local equilibria under interest rate rules is analyzed in a model with sticky information `a la Mankiw and Reis (2002). The main results are tighter bounds on monetary policy than in sticky-price models, irrelevance of the degree of output-gap targeting for determinacy, independence of determinacy regions from parameters outside the interest-rate rule, and equivalence between real determinacy in models satisfying the natural rate hypothesis and nominal determinacy in the associated full-information, flex-price equivalent. The analysis follows from boundedness considerations on the nonautonomous recursion that describe the MA(¥) representation of variables’ reaction to endogenous fluctuations.

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File URL: http://sfb649.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/papers/pdf/SFB649DP2008-054.pdf
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Paper provided by Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany in its series SFB 649 Discussion Papers with number SFB649DP2008-054.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2008-054
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  1. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
  2. Trabandt, Mathias, 2003. "Sticky Information vs. Sticky Prices : A Horse Race in a DSGE Framework," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,41, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  3. Benjamin D. Keen, 2007. "Sticky Price And Sticky Information Price-Setting Models: What Is The Difference?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(4), pages 770-786, October.
  4. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2002. "Taylor Rules in a Model that Satisfies the Natural-Rate Hypothesis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 79-84, May.
  5. Alexander Meyer-Gohde, 2007. "Solving Linear Rational Expectations Models with Lagged Expectations Quickly and Easily," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-069, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  6. Levin, Andrew & Wieland, Volker & Williams, John C., 2003. "The performance of forecast-based monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/06, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  7. Clarida, Richard & Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," CEPR Discussion Papers 2139, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Bennett McCallum, . "Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies in Monetary Policy Analysis," GSIA Working Papers 2003-E77, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  9. Klein, Paul, 2000. "Using the generalized Schur form to solve a multivariate linear rational expectations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1405-1423, September.
  10. Thomas J. Sargent, 1973. "Rational Expectations, the Real Rate of Interest, and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(2), pages 429-480.
  11. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  12. Javier Andres & J. David López-Salido & Edward Nelson, 2005. "Sticky-price models and the natural rate hypothesis," Working Papers 2005-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  13. Thomas Lubik & Massimiliano Marzo, 2003. "An Inventory of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a New Keynesian Macroeconomic Model," Economics Working Paper Archive 500, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  14. Michael Woodford, 2000. "Pitfalls of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 100-104, May.
  15. Bennett T. McCallum, . "Role of the minimal state variable criterion in rational expectations models," GSIA Working Papers 1999-13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  16. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A semi-classical model of price-level adjustment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 251-284, December.
  17. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  18. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  19. Woodford, Michael, 2003. "Comment on: Multiple-solution indeterminacies in monetary policy analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1177-1188, July.
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