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Exchange Rate Regimes and the Transition Process in the Western Balkans

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Abstract

In the academic literature some criteria have been identified which could have an impact on the success of the transition process, such as macroeconomic stability, microeconomic restructuring and implementation of legal and institutional reforms. The role of the exchange rate system in general is to foster the stability of the monetary environment characterized by low inflation rates and a stable domestic currency. Although the importance of a sustainable price-level oriented monetary policy for the transition-success has been stressed in the academic literature, there are still further questions to be answered related to the choice of the exchange rate system throughout the different phases of the transition process. This paper intends to contribute to close this gap in the literature. The guiding research question is how the choice of an exchange rate system influences the economic success of a country in transition and its gradual integration within the European Union (EU) and the European Monetary Union (EMU). For this purpose, the study focuses on the transition process of South-eastern Europe (SEE). In particular and for the first time in a joint study, we will take a look at the following South-eastern European Countries (SEECs), often referred to as the “West Balkans”: Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Croatia, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYRM), Serbia and Montenegro, as these five countries share certain common characteristics: they were part of the Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR); they are countries in transition; they are members of the Stability Pact for South-eastern Europe and they are all potential EU-accession candidates.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansgar Belke & Albina Zenkic, 2007. "Exchange Rate Regimes and the Transition Process in the Western Balkans," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 288/2007, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:hoh:hohdip:288
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    File URL: http://www.uni-hohenheim.de/RePEc/hoh/papers/288.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Warren Coats & Marko Škreb, 2002. "Ten Years of Transition - Central Banking in the CEE and the Baltics," Surveys 7, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    2. Domac, Ilker & Peters, Kyle & Yuzefovich, Yevgeny, 2001. "Does the exchange rate regime affect macroeconomic performance : evidence from transition economics," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2642, The World Bank.
    3. Heiko Fritz & Hans-Jürgen Wagener, 2003. "Währungspolitische Optionen für die ostmitteleuropäischen EU-Beitrittskandidaten," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 72(4), pages 611-623.
    4. Ansgar Belke & Andreas Schaal, 2005. "Chance Osteuropa – Herausforderung für die Finanzdienstleistung," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 261/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
    5. Oleh Havrylyshyn, 2001. "Recovery and Growth in Transition: A Decade of Evidence," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(4), pages 1-4.
    6. Gros,Daniel & Steinherr,Alfred, 2004. "Economic Transition in Central and Eastern Europe," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521826389, March.
    7. Friedrich Schneider & Ansgar Belke, 2004. "Privatization in Austria: Some theoretical reasons and performance measures," Economics working papers 2004-04, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    8. Daniel Gros, 2000. "One Euro from the Atlantic to the Urals? : the European Monetary Union," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(2), pages 26-31, October.
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    Keywords

    Balkans; exchange rate mechanism; optimum currency areas; economic transition; trade integration;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • P21 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Planning, Coordination, and Reform

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