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Discriminatory Power and Predictions of Defaults of Structural Credit Risk Models

  • T. C. Wong

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority)

  • C. H. Hui

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

  • C. F. Lo

    (The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research)

Registered author(s):

    This paper studies the discriminatory power and calibration quality of the structural credit risk models under the ¡§exogenous default boundary¡¨ approach including those proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) and Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein (2001), and ¡§endogenous default boundary¡¨ approach in Leland and Toft (1996) based on 2,050 non-financial companies in 46 economies during the period 1998 to 2005. Their discriminatory power in terms of differentiating defaulting and non-defaulting companies is adequate and the differences among them are not material. In addition, the calibration quality of the three models is similar, although limited evidence is found that the Longstaff and Schwartz model marginally outperforms the others in some subsamples. Overall, no significant difference in the capability of measuring credit risk between the ¡§exogenous default boundary¡¨ and ¡§endogenous default boundary¡¨ approaches is found.

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    Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 342009.

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    Length: 29 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2009
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:342009
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    1. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
    2. Marsh, Paul, 1982. " The Choice between Equity and Debt: An Empirical Study," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 37(1), pages 121-44, March.
    3. Flannery, Mark J. & Rangan, Kasturi P., 2006. "Partial adjustment toward target capital structures," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 469-506, March.
    4. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1995. " A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(3), pages 789-819, July.
    5. Flannery, Mark J. & Nikolova, Stanislava (Stas) & Öztekin, Özde, 2012. "Leverage Expectations and Bond Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(04), pages 689-714, August.
    6. Leland, Hayne E & Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. " Optimal Capital Structure, Endogenous Bankruptcy, and the Term Structure of Credit Spreads," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(3), pages 987-1019, July.
    7. Childs, Paul D. & Mauer, David C. & Ott, Steven H., 2005. "Interactions of corporate financing and investment decisions: The effects of agency conflicts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 667-690, June.
    8. Pierre Collin-Dufresne, 2001. "Do Credit Spreads Reflect Stationary Leverage Ratios?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1929-1957, October.
    9. Christopher A. Hennessy & Toni M. Whited, 2005. "Debt Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1129-1165, 06.
    10. Black, Fischer & Cox, John C, 1976. "Valuing Corporate Securities: Some Effects of Bond Indenture Provisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 351-67, May.
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