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Leverage Expectations and Bond Credit Spreads

Author

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  • Flannery, Mark J.
  • Nikolova, Stanislava (Stas)
  • Öztekin, Özde

Abstract

In an efficient market, spreads will reflect both the issuer’s current risk and investors’ expectations about how that risk might change over time. Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein (2001) show analytically that a firm’s expected future leverage importantly influences the spread on its bonds. We use capital structure theory to construct proxies for investors’ expectations about future leverage changes and find that these significantly affect bond yields, above and beyond the effect of contemporaneous leverage. Expectations under the trade-off, pecking order, and credit-rating theories of capital structure all receive empirical support, suggesting that investors view them as complementary when pricing corporate bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Flannery, Mark J. & Nikolova, Stanislava (Stas) & Öztekin, Özde, 2012. "Leverage Expectations and Bond Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 689-714, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:47:y:2012:i:04:p:689-714_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Redouane Elkamhi & Raunaq S. Pungaliya & Anand M. Vijh, 2014. "What Do Credit Markets Tell Us About the Speed of Leverage Adjustment?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(9), pages 2269-2290, September.
    2. Saeed, Momna & Elnahass, Marwa & Izzeldin, Marwan & Tsionas, Mike, 2021. "Yield spread determinants of sukuk and conventional bonds," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    3. João M. Pinto & Mafalda C. Correia, 2017. "Are Covered Bonds Different from Asset Securitization Bonds?," Working Papers de Gestão (Management Working Papers) 01, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    4. Elsa Allman, 2022. "Pricing climate change risk in corporate bonds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(7), pages 596-618, December.
    5. Feldhütter, Peter & Schaefer, Stephen, 2023. "Debt dynamics and credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 497-535.
    6. Jiang, Zhiqian & Xu, Yue & Fang, Mei & Tang, Ziling & Tao, Chunhua, 2023. "How does the bond market price corporate ESG engagement? Evidence from China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1406-1423.
    7. Liu, Liang-Chih & Dai, Tian-Shyr & Wang, Chuan-Ju, 2016. "Evaluating corporate bonds and analyzing claim holders’ decisions with complex debt structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 151-174.
    8. T. C. Wong & C. H. Hui & C. F. Lo, 2009. "Discriminatory Power and Predictions of Defaults of Structural Credit Risk Models," Working Papers 342009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    9. Katz, Yuri A. & Tian, Li, 2013. "q-Gaussian distributions of leverage returns, first stopping times, and default risk valuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(20), pages 4989-4996.
    10. Marques, Manuel O. & Pinto, João M., 2020. "A comparative analysis of ex ante credit spreads: Structured finance versus straight debt finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Paulo P. Alves & M. Ricardo Cunha & Luís K. Pacheco & João M. Pinto, 2022. "How Banks Price Loans for LBOs: an Empirical Analysis of Spread Determinants ," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 163-200, December.
    12. Costas Lambrinoudakis & Michael Neumann & George Skiadopoulos, 2014. "Capital Structure and Financial Flexibility: Expectations of Future Shocks," Working Papers 731, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    13. Lambrinoudakis, Costas & Skiadopoulos, George & Gkionis, Konstantinos, 2019. "Capital structure and financial flexibility: Expectations of future shocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 1-18.
    14. Lian, Yonghui & Ye, Tao & Zhang, Yiyang & Zhang, Lin, 2023. "How does corporate ESG performance affect bond credit spreads: Empirical evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 352-371.
    15. Nusrat Jahan, 2022. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Corporate Credit Spreads: Evidence from Canada," Carleton Economic Papers 22-07, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    16. Cao, Shijiao & Wang, Jianqiong & Zhou, Jianan, 2022. "Pricing like things alike: The role of financial statement comparability in bond pricing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 428-447.
    17. Shijiao Cao & Jianqiong Wang, 2023. "Longitudinal accounting comparability and bond credit spreads: Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(2), pages 1953-1981, June.
    18. Katz, Y.A. & Tian, L., 2014. "Superstatistical fluctuations in time series of leverage returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 326-331.
    19. Eisenthal-Berkovitz, Yael & Feldhütter, Peter & Vig, Vikrant, 2020. "Leveraged buyouts and bond credit spreads," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(3), pages 577-601.
    20. Das, Sanjiv R. & Kim, Seoyoung, 2015. "Credit spreads with dynamic debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 121-140.

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