IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/jfinqa/v47y2012i04p689-714_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Leverage Expectations and Bond Credit Spreads

Author

Listed:
  • Flannery, Mark J.
  • Nikolova, Stanislava (Stas)
  • Öztekin, Özde

Abstract

In an efficient market, spreads will reflect both the issuer’s current risk and investors’ expectations about how that risk might change over time. Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein ( 2001 ) show analytically that a firm’s expected future leverage importantly influences the spread on its bonds. We use capital structure theory to construct proxies for investors’ expectations about future leverage changes and find that these significantly affect bond yields, above and beyond the effect of contemporaneous leverage. Expectations under the trade-off, pecking order, and credit-rating theories of capital structure all receive empirical support, suggesting that investors view them as complementary when pricing corporate bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Flannery, Mark J. & Nikolova, Stanislava (Stas) & Öztekin, Özde, 2012. "Leverage Expectations and Bond Credit Spreads," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(04), pages 689-714, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:47:y:2012:i:04:p:689-714_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://journals.cambridge.org/abstract_S0022109012000300
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tulin Erden & Baohong Sun, "undated". "Advertising Effectiveness, Price Sensitivity and Use Experience Interactions in Experience Good Markets," GSIA Working Papers 2000-E44, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    2. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    3. Gompers, Paul & Lerner, Josh, 2000. "Money chasing deals? The impact of fund inflows on private equity valuation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 281-325, February.
    4. Steven N. Kaplan & Antoinette Schoar, 2005. "Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence, and Capital Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1791-1823, August.
    5. Axelson, Ulf & Strömberg, Per Johan & Weisbach, Michael, 2007. "Why are Buyouts Leveraged? The Financial Structure of Private Equity Firms," CEPR Discussion Papers 6133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "The risk and return of venture capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, pages 3-52.
    7. Cao, Jerry & Lerner, Josh, 2009. "The performance of reverse leveraged buyouts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 139-157, February.
    8. Michael Ewens & Charles M. Jones & Matthew Rhodes-Kropf, 2013. "The Price of Diversifiable Risk in Venture Capital and Private Equity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 1854-1889.
    9. Andrew Metrick, 2010. "The Economics of Private Equity Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2303-2341, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. João M. Pinto & Mafalda C. Correia, 2017. "Are Covered Bonds Different from Asset Securitization Bonds?," Working Papers de Gestão (Management Working Papers) 01, Católica Porto Business School, Universidade Católica Portuguesa.
    2. Liu, Liang-Chih & Dai, Tian-Shyr & Wang, Chuan-Ju, 2016. "Evaluating corporate bonds and analyzing claim holders’ decisions with complex debt structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 151-174.
    3. Chung, Tsz-Kin & Hui, Cho-Hoi & Li, Ka-Fai, 2013. "Explaining share price disparity with parameter uncertainty: Evidence from Chinese A- and H-shares," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1073-1083.
    4. Katz, Yuri A. & Tian, Li, 2013. "q-Gaussian distributions of leverage returns, first stopping times, and default risk valuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(20), pages 4989-4996.
    5. Costas Lambrinoudakis & Michael Neumann & George Skiadopoulos, 2014. "Capital Structure and Financial Flexibility: Expectations of Future Shocks," Working Papers 731, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    6. Katz, Y.A. & Tian, L., 2014. "Superstatistical fluctuations in time series of leverage returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 326-331.
    7. Das, Sanjiv R. & Kim, Seoyoung, 2015. "Credit spreads with dynamic debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 121-140.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:47:y:2012:i:04:p:689-714_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters). General contact details of provider: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_JFQ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.