Unobservable-Component Estimates of Output Gaps in Five Asian Economies
This paper estimates output gaps for Hong Kong, Korea, the Philippines, Singapore and Taiwan, employing the HP filter and unobservable-components (UC) techniques. The latter approach assumes that actual output is the sum of potential output, which follows a random walk with a time-varying drift, and a stationary output gap. While the results imply that UC methods are useful in estimating output gaps in Asia, simple Phillips curves suggest that the information contents of the two measures of the gap are essentially identical. The main advantage of the UC technique is that it allows the construction of confidence bands for the gap.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (852)2878 1978
Fax: (852)2878 7006
Web page: http://www.hkimr.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
- Bank for International Settlements, 2001. "Modelling aspects of the inflation process and the monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market countries," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 08, 08-2015.
- Bank for International Settlements, 2001. "Empirical studies of structural changes and inflation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 03, 08-2015.
- Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
- Clark, Peter K., 1989. "Trend reversion in real output and unemployment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 15-32, January.
- King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993.
"Low frequency filtering and real business cycles,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
- Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Smets, Frank, 1999. "Output gaps and monetary policy in the EMU area1," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 801-812, April.
- Watson, Mark W., 1986. "Univariate detrending methods with stochastic trends," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 49-75, July.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:052002. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (HKIMR)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.