IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hit/piedp1/170.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Impacts of Aging in Japan on the Balance of Current Accounts

Author

Listed:
  • Ito, Takatoshi
  • 伊藤, 隆敏
  • イトウ, タカトシ
  • Tsuri, Masao
  • 釣, 雅雄
  • ツリ, マサオ

Abstract

This paper investigates questions regarding the saving rates by age brackets and aggregate savings, and then conducts a simulation analysis of the current account, from the I-S balances of households, corporations and the government. Saving rates of the old (65 years old and above) with publicly available data are high because of a selection bias in household head, that excludes the old living with younger family members and being non-head of the household. The paper estimates the true saving rates by age brackets rather than of household head's age brackets with taking the non-head households' member into account. Estimated saving rates of the old are still positive (about 10% to 20% which are less than those of the young) even after adjusting for the bias. The impact of aging on the aggregate saving rates will not be large if the future old people continue to save as the current old people. We forecast the current account in several scenarios, using data of demographic changes, the estimated aggregate saving rates, and the estimated interest payments of government bonds. It is of our particular interest whether the current account will turn to be negative by the rapid demographic change. It is found that the IS balances would remain positive under a condition that the government bond issues would be constrained by fiscal sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Ito, Takatoshi & 伊藤, 隆敏 & イトウ, タカトシ & Tsuri, Masao & 釣, 雅雄 & ツリ, マサオ, 2003. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Aging in Japan on the Balance of Current Accounts," Discussion Paper 170, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:piedp1:170
    Note: March 2002; September 2, 2003 (Last Revised)
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/14284/pie_dp170.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hayashi, Fumio & Ando, Albert & Ferris, Richard, 1988. "Life cycle and bequest savings A study of Japanese and U.S. households based on data from the 1984 NSFIE and the 1983 survey of consumer finances," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 450-491, December.
    2. Ohtake, F. & Horioka, C.Y., 1995. "Saving Motives in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0392, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    3. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    4. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1992. "The Political Economy of Tax Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_92-2, March.
    5. Thomas A. Barthold & Takatoshi Ito, 1992. "Bequest Taxes and Accumulation of Household Wealth: U.S.-Japan Comparison," NBER Chapters, in: The Political Economy of Tax Reform, pages 235-292, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Hayashi, Fumio & Ito, Takatoshi & Slemrod, Joel, 1988. "Housing finance imperfections, taxation, and private saving: A comparative simulation analysis of the United States and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 215-238, September.
    7. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 1992. "The Political Economy of Tax Reform," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386676, December.
    8. Kitamura, Yukinobu & 北村, 行伸 & キタムラ, ユキノブ & Takayama, Noriyuki & 高山, 憲之 & タカヤマ, ノリユキ & Arita, Fumiko & 有田, 富美子, 2001. "Household Savings and Wealth Distribution in Japan," Discussion Paper 38, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ito, Takatoshi & 伊藤, 隆敏 & イトウ, タカトシ & Tsuri, Masao & 釣, 雅雄 & ツリ, マサオ, 2002. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Aging in Japan," Discussion Paper 77, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2020. "Does the Selfish Life-Cycle Model Apply in the Case of Japan?," AGI Working Paper Series 2020-04, Asian Growth Research Institute.
    3. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2021. "Is the selfish life-cycle model more applicable in Japan and, if so, why? A literature survey," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 157-187, March.
    4. Campbell, David W., 2004. "Explaining Japan's saving rate," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 797-815, August.
    5. Ohtake, Fumio & Shintani, Mototsugu, 1996. "The effect of demographics on the Japanese housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 189-201, April.
    6. Takatoshi Ito & Keiko Nosse Hirono, 1993. "Efficiency of the Tokyo Housing Market," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-32, July.
    7. Charles Horioka, 2014. "Are Americans and Indians more altruistic than the Japanese and Chinese? Evidence from a new international survey of bequest plans," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 411-437, September.
    8. Horioka, Charles Yuji, 2009. "Do bequests increase or decrease wealth inequalities?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 23-25, April.
    9. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2014. "Why Do People Leave Bequests? For Love or Self-Interest? Evidence from a New International Survey of Bequest Plans," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201406, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    10. Kitamura, Yukinobu & Takayama, Noriyuki & Arita, Fumiko, 2001. "Household savings in Japan revisited," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 135-153, June.
      • Kitamura, Yukinobu & 北村, 行伸 & キタムラ, ユキノブ & Takayama, Noriyuki & 高山, 憲之 & タカヤマ, ノリユキ & Arita, Fumiko & 有田, 富美子, 2000. "Household Savings in Japan Revisited," Discussion Paper 6, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    11. Laitner, John & Ohlsson, Henry, 2001. "Bequest motives: a comparison of Sweden and the United States," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 205-236, January.
    12. Charles Yuji Horioka, 2002. "Are the Japanese Selfish, Altruistic or Dynastic?," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 53(1), pages 26-54, March.
    13. Miguel Sánchez Romero & Naohiro Ogawa & Rikiya Matsukura, 2013. "To give or not to give: bequest estimate and wealth impact based on a CGE model with realistic demography in Japan," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2013-012, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Fukujyu Yamazaki & Takako Idee & Toshiaki Watanabe, 1999. "Distortionary Taxation, Excessive Price Sensitivity, and Japanese Land Prices," NBER Working Papers 7254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Ken Yamada, 2006. "Intra-family transfers in Japan: intergenerational co-residence, distance, and contact," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(16), pages 1839-1861.
    16. Shimono, Keiko & Otsuki, Hideaki, 2006. "The distribution of bequests in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 77-86, March.
    17. Junya Hamaaki & Masahiro Hori & Keiko Murata, 2014. "Intergenerational Transfers and Asset Inequality in Japan: Empirical Evidence from New Survey Data," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 41-62, March.
    18. Bernheim, B. Douglas, 2002. "Taxation and saving," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 18, pages 1173-1249, Elsevier.
    19. Ramon L. Clarete & Ernesto M. Pernia & Ammielou Gaduena & Adrian Mendoza, 2014. "The Role of Science, Technology and Research in Economic Development," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201407, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    20. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1991. "Japanese Finance in the 1980s: A Survey," NBER Chapters, in: Trade with Japan: Has the Door Opened Wider?, pages 225-270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:piedp1:170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Digital Resources Section, Hitotsubashi University Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cihitjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.