IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomic Impacts of Aging in Japan on the Balance of Current Accounts


  • Ito, Takatoshi
  • Tsuri, Masao


This paper investigates questions regarding the saving rates by age brackets and aggregate savings, and then conducts a simulation analysis of the current account, from the I-S balances of households, corporations and the government. Saving rates of the old (65 years old and above) with publicly available data are high because of a selection bias in household head, that excludes the old living with younger family members and being non-head of the household. The paper estimates the true saving rates by age brackets rather than of household head's age brackets with taking the non-head households' member into account. Estimated saving rates of the old are still positive (about 10% to 20% which are less than those of the young) even after adjusting for the bias. The impact of aging on the aggregate saving rates will not be large if the future old people continue to save as the current old people. We forecast the current account in several scenarios, using data of demographic changes, the estimated aggregate saving rates, and the estimated interest payments of government bonds. It is of our particular interest whether the current account will turn to be negative by the rapid demographic change. It is found that the IS balances would remain positive under a condition that the government bond issues would be constrained by fiscal sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Ito, Takatoshi & Tsuri, Masao, 2003. "Macroeconomic Impacts of Aging in Japan on the Balance of Current Accounts," Discussion Paper 170, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
  • Handle: RePEc:hit:piedp1:170
    Note: March 2002; September 2, 2003 (Last Revised)

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hayashi, Fumio & Ando, Albert & Ferris, Richard, 1988. "Life cycle and bequest savings A study of Japanese and U.S. households based on data from the 1984 NSFIE and the 1983 survey of consumer finances," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 450-491, December.
    2. Ohtake, F. & Horioka, C.Y., 1995. "Saving Motives in Japan," ISER Discussion Paper 0392, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    3. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-329, June.
    4. Kitamura, Yukinobu & Takayama, Noriyuki & Arita, Fumiko, 2001. "Household Savings and Wealth Distribution in Japan," Discussion Paper 38, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:piedp1:170. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Digital Resources Section, Hitotsubashi University Library). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.