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The Role Of Wild Cards Analysis In Foresight Studies: The Case Of Russia

Author

Listed:
  • Daria A. Pavlova

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Yulia V. Milshina

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Konstantin O. Vishnevskiy

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

  • Ozcan Saritas

    (National Research University Higher School of Economics)

Abstract

The wild cards conception as an element of foresight studies has been widely discussed by numerous scholars who have interest and qualification in strategic management field or STI policies from the end of the previous century. Some researchers focus their attention on the general key features of this phenomenon and its overall impact as well as origin, while others study possible applications of wild cards analysis in corporate and government sectors. The purpose of this research is to systematize knowledge about wild cards, determine their role in foresight practices and suggest an instrument for their detection and implementation into foresight research. For this reason, on the basis of a number of national and international foresight projects, we developed existing methodological approaches of wild cards identification, analysis and visual presentation. The results of the study were applied to Russian S&T Foresight 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Daria A. Pavlova & Yulia V. Milshina & Konstantin O. Vishnevskiy & Ozcan Saritas, 2018. "The Role Of Wild Cards Analysis In Foresight Studies: The Case Of Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 89/STI/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:89sti2018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sandro Mendonca & Miguel Pina e Cunha & Jari Kaivo-oja & Frank Ruff, 2003. "Wild cards, weak signals and organizational improvisation," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp432, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    2. Rafael Popper, 2012. "Mapping Futures Studies," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 6(2), pages 56-75.
    3. Ozcan Saritas & Serhat Burmaoglu, 2015. "The evolution of the use of Foresight methods: a scientometric analysis of global FTA research output," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 105(1), pages 497-508, October.
    4. Alexander Sokolov & Alexander Chulok & Vladimir Mesropyan, 2013. "Long-Term Science and Technology Policy – Russian priorities for 2030," HSE Working papers WP BRP 19/STI/2013, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    5. Julia V. Ponomareva & Anna V. Sokolova, 2015. "The Identification of Weak Signals and Wild Cards in Foresight Methodology: Stages and Methods," HSE Working papers WP BRP 46/STI/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    6. Aven, Terje, 2015. "Implications of black swans to the foundations and practice of risk assessment and management," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 83-91.
    7. Alexey Kindras & Dirk Meissner & Konstantin Vishnevskiy, 2019. "Regional Foresight for Bridging National Science, Technology, and Innovation with Company Innovation: Experiences from Russia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(4), pages 1319-1340, December.
    8. Moro, Alberto & Boelman, Elisa & Joanny, Geraldine & Garcia, Juan Lopez, 2018. "A bibliometric-based technique to identify emerging photovoltaic technologies in a comparative assessment with expert review," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 407-416.
    9. Ozcan Saritas & Liliana N. Proskuryakova & E. Kyzyngasheva, 2015. "Water Resources – an Analysis of Trends, Weak Siglans and Wild Cards with Implications for Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 35/STI/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthew J. Spaniol & Matthew J. Evans & Kristian Tranekær & Nicholas J. Rowland & Nick P. Atkinson, 2021. "Still fooled by randomness, twenty years later?," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(2), June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    foresight; national foresight projects; wild cards; weak signals; STI policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O32 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D

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