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Beyond the COVID-19 crisis: A research note on post-pandemic scenarios for South Tyrol 2030+

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  • Habicher, Daria
  • Windegger, Felix
  • von der Gracht, Heiko A.
  • Pechlaner, Harald

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has hit societies all around the globe, with tremendous consequences. Beyond its impact on individual and public health, the ensuing crisis has also accentuated existing social and economic problems and, in many cases, exacerbated them. In this context, a central question arises: How can societies be better prepared for the future? This research note presents an example of strategic foresight as an instrument for better understanding systemic challenges, anticipating the emergent risks and opportunities and informing future-proof decision-making. More specifically, it reflects central insights of a regional foresight project that aimed at exploring development pathways of the Italian province South Tyrol for the next 10 years and beyond (2030+). Delineating four plausible, equivalent and consistent scenarios and their entailed challenges, risks and opportunities for South Tyrol, the project offers a future-oriented policy instrument for political, economic and civil actors and key stakeholders. Instead of a classic empirical outlet, the article is prepared as a research note that, beyond sketching the scenarios, shares the project experiences, lessons learned, challenges and success factors for other future regional foresight endeavors.

Suggested Citation

  • Habicher, Daria & Windegger, Felix & von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Pechlaner, Harald, 2022. "Beyond the COVID-19 crisis: A research note on post-pandemic scenarios for South Tyrol 2030+," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:180:y:2022:i:c:s0040162522002748
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.121749
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Htay-Wah Saw & Dana P. Goldman, 2020. "Political polarization in US residents’ COVID-19 risk perceptions, policy preferences, and protective behaviors," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 177-194, October.
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    4. Piirainen, Kalle A. & Tanner, Anne Nygaard & Alkærsig, Lars, 2017. "Regional foresight and dynamics of smart specialization: A typology of regional diversification patterns," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 289-300.
    5. Ramirez, Rafael & Wilkinson, Angela, 2014. "Rethinking the 2×2 scenario method: Grid or frames?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 254-264.
    6. Artjom Rafaelevich Nagimov & Elvir Munirovich Akhmetshin & Valeriy Pavlovich Slanov & Raisa Nikolaevna Shpakova & Mikhail Prokopievich Solomonov & Dmitry Pavlovich Il'yaschenko, 2018. "Foresight Technologies in the Formation of a Sustainable Regional Development Strategy," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 741-752.
    7. Alexey Kindras & Dirk Meissner & Konstantin Vishnevskiy, 2019. "Regional Foresight for Bridging National Science, Technology, and Innovation with Company Innovation: Experiences from Russia," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(4), pages 1319-1340, December.
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    1. Leite, Higor, 2025. "Artificial intelligence in higher education: Research notes from a longitudinal study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

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