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The integrated approach for Foresight evaluation: the Russian case

  • Anna Sokolova


    (National Research University Higher School of Economics (Russia))

As the impact of strategic decision-making at the corporate, sectoral and national levels increases, there are growing demands for high quality and solid Foresight outputs. In this regard, a timely detection and elimination of problems in Foresight projects is of great importance. A thorough evaluation of criteria and methods used in Foresight analysis would permit the improved effectiveness of Foresight activities. The results could be set against the aims to decide on the feasibility of projects and identify ways to improve them. Despite great interest in Foresight evaluation demonstrated by stakeholders at various levels, the general principles for conducting it have not yet been formulated, which hinders its development and the diffusion of successful expertise. The purpose of this paper is to develop an integrated approach for the evaluation of Foresight projects, including their classification, basic criteria to evaluate project realisation, results and impact and a SWOT analysis. The proposed methodology was tested on Russian National Foresight 2030 and the results are described and analysed. Further ways of developing this approach are suggested

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Paper provided by National Research University Higher School of Economics in its series HSE Working papers with number WP BRP 20/STI/2013.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in WP BRP Series: Science, Technology and Innovation / STI, October 2013, pages 1-21
Handle: RePEc:hig:wpaper:20sti2013
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  1. Ozcan Saritas & Erol Taymaz & Turgut Tumer, 2006. "Vision 2023: Turkey’s National Technology Foresight Program – a contextualist description and analysis," ERC Working Papers 0601, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Jan 2006.
  2. Dirk Meissner & Mario Cervantes, 2010. "Successful Foresight Study: Implications for Design, Preparatory Activities and Tools to Uses," Foresight-Russia, National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 74-81.
  3. Dirk Meissner & Alexander Sokolov, 2013. "Foresight and science, technology and innovation indicators," Chapters, in: Handbook of Innovation Indicators and Measurement, chapter 16, pages 381-402 Edward Elgar.
  4. Ekaterina Makarova & Anna Sokolova, 2012. "Foresight Evaluation: Lessons from Project Management," HSE Working papers WP BRP 01/MAN/2012, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  5. Mikhail Gershman, 2012. "New challenges for STI policy from the internationalization of R&D: the case of Russian-German R&D cooperation," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/STI/2012, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  6. Attila Havas & Doris Schartinger & Matthias Weber, 2010. "The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making: recent experiences and future perspectives," Research Evaluation, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 91-104, June.
  7. Kerstin Cuhls, 2003. "From forecasting to foresight processes-new participative foresight activities in Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2-3), pages 93-111.
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