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A bottom-up approach to estimating policy-induced changes in GHG emission and air pollution exposure from ships

Author

Listed:
  • Fukushima, Nanna

    (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI))

  • van Dongen, Eef

    (Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden)

  • Vierth, Inge

    (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute (VTI))

  • Windmark, Fredrik

    (Air Navigation Services of Sweden (LFV), Norrköping, Sweden)

Abstract

Maritime transport generates substantial greenhouse gas emissions and local air pollution, yet policy appraisal commonly relies on aggregated handbook cost factors that insufficiently account for spatial heterogeneity in exposure. This paper develops a bottom-up framework integrating AIS-based ship position data with emission modelling, atmospheric dispersion, and population grids to evaluate health and climate impacts of maritime policies. Applying the method to Stockholm and Gothenburg, we simulate onshore power supply, electrification of public ferries, and full IMO Tier III compliance. Tier III delivers the largest NOₓ exposure reductions, while effects vary across regions. The approach enables consistent, spatially explicit welfare comparisons of maritime interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Fukushima, Nanna & van Dongen, Eef & Vierth, Inge & Windmark, Fredrik, 2026. "A bottom-up approach to estimating policy-induced changes in GHG emission and air pollution exposure from ships," Working Papers 2026:3, Swedish National Road & Transport Research Institute (VTI).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:vtiwps:2026_003
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    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

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