How Pro-Land-Poor are African Land Rental Markets?

Population growth and intergenerational subdivision are reducing landholdings in many parts of rural Africa, while structural transformation has not generated sufficient alternative livelihoods for all households facing increasing land scarcity. Whether shrinking land ownership translates into shrinking access to agricultural land therefore depends partly on land rental markets. We use balanced household panels drawn from nationally representative surveys from Malawi, Nigeria, Uganda, and Ethiopia. Repeated observations of the same households allow us to obtain more reliable measures of land ownership and land rental market participation despite substantial reporting instability across survey rounds. We examine separately who gains access to rented land, how much land participating households obtain, and how important, rented land becomes in their operational holdings. Land rental participation among land-poor households differs across countries, with clear pro-land-poor patterns in Nigeria and Uganda and smaller, less uniform participation differences in Ethiopia. Conditional on participation, near-landless and land-poor tenants obtain fewer hectares than tenants with larger ownership holdings in Nigeria and Uganda, but no comparable gradient is found in Malawi or Ethiopia. Across all four countries, rented land accounts for a progressively larger share of operational holdings as ownership declines and substantially expands operational holdings among many near-landless tenants. Previous participation is strongly associated with current access in Malawi, Uganda, and Ethiopia, but not Nigeria. This pattern is consistent with state dependence arising from initial transaction costs and advantages conferred by established rental relationships. Land rental can therefore loosen the connection between ownership poverty and operational land exclusion, but its contribution depends on who gains access, how much land they obtain, and whether access can be sustained over time. This provides a potential mechanism for sustaining agricultural livelihoods while broader structural transformation remains incomplete.