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Credit-Implied Equity Volatility – Long-Term Forecasts and Alternative Fear Gauges

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This study discusses how to compute and forecast long-term stock return volatilities, typically with a 5-year horizon or longer, using credit derivatives, and how such volatilities can be used in different areas ranging from the valuation of employee stock options and other long-term derivatives to the construction of market-based fear gauges in selected countries or market segments. In the empirical part of the paper I focus on the European financial sector and find the credit-implied volatilities and fear gauges to behave well. The forecasting accuracy of the credit-implied volatilities is found to be better than that of horizon-matched historical volatilities.

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  • Byström, Hans, 2014. "Credit-Implied Equity Volatility – Long-Term Forecasts and Alternative Fear Gauges," Working Papers 2014:34, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2014_034
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    1. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sorensen, Bent & Yesiltas, Sevcan, 2012. "Leverage across firms, banks, and countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 284-298.
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    6. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    7. Byström, Hans, 2013. "Stock Prices and Stock Return Volatilities Implied by the Credit Market," Working Papers 2013:25, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 14 Feb 2014.
    8. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
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    1. Forte, Santiago & Lovreta, Lidija, 2023. "Credit default swaps, the leverage effect, and cross-sectional predictability of equity and firm asset volatility," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit default swaps; implied volatility; CreditGrades; VIX; fear gauge; long-term forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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