IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhs/lunewp/2003_001.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating Default Probabilities Using Stock Prices: The Swedish Banking Sector During the 1990s Banking Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Byström, Hans

    () (Department of Economics, Lund University)

Abstract

The growing interest in management of credit risk and estimation ofdefault probabilities has given rise to a range of more or lesselaborate credit risk models. Hall and Miles (1990) suggests an approachof estimating failure probabilities based solely on stock market prices.The approach has the advantage of simplicity but relies on markete.ciency to hold. In this paper we suggest an extension to the Hall andMiles (1990) model using extreme value theory and apply the extendedmodel to the Swedish financial sector and to individual Swedish banks.The 15- year long sample in our study covers the period of the Swedishbanking crisis of the early 1990s. We find a close correspondencebetween changes in the estimated probabilities of failure and the actualcredit events occurring. Credit ratings from major credit ratingagencies, on the other hand, are shown to react much less and muchslower to credit quality changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Byström, Hans, 2003. "Estimating Default Probabilities Using Stock Prices: The Swedish Banking Sector During the 1990s Banking Crisis," Working Papers 2003:1, Lund University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2003_001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
    2. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    3. Brian H. Boyer & Michael S. Gibson & Mico Loretan, 1997. "Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations," International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. William R. Cline, 2010. "Financial Globalization, Economic Growth, and the Crisis of 2007-09," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 499, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bali, Turan G. & Weinbaum, David, 2007. "A conditional extreme value volatility estimator based on high-frequency returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 361-397, February.
    2. Alejandro Bernales & Diether W. Beuermann & Gonzalo Cortazar, 2014. "Thinly traded securities and risk management," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 41(1 Year 20), pages 5-48, June.
    3. Chen, Bin & Hong, Yongmiao, 2014. "A unified approach to validating univariate and multivariate conditional distribution models in time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P1), pages 22-44.
    4. Chen, Hua & Cummins, J. David, 2010. "Longevity bond premiums: The extreme value approach and risk cubic pricing," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 150-161, February.
    5. Y. Malevergne & V. F. Pisarenko & D. Sornette, 2003. "Empirical Distributions of Log-Returns: between the Stretched Exponential and the Power Law?," Papers physics/0305089, arXiv.org.
    6. Alentorn, Amadeo & Markose, Sheri M, 2006. "Removing Maturity Effects of Implied Risk Neutral Densities and Related Statistics," Economics Discussion Papers 3722, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    7. R.J. Powell, 2017. "New perspectives on bank risk in Malaysia," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1326217-132, January.
    8. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Guégan, D. & Ladoucette, S., 2002. "What is the Best Approach to Measure the Interdependence between Different Markets?," Working papers 95, Banque de France.
    9. Jin, Xisong & Nadal De Simone, Francisco de A., 2014. "Banking systemic vulnerabilities: A tail-risk dynamic CIMDO approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 81-101.
    10. repec:zbw:cfswop:wp200508 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Turan G. Bali, 2007. "An Extreme Value Approach to Estimating Interest-Rate Volatility: Pricing Implications for Interest-Rate Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 53(2), pages 323-339, February.
    12. Ines Fortin & Christoph Kuzmics, 2002. "Tail‐dependence in stock‐return pairs," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 89-107, April.
    13. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    14. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Beuermann, Diether & Bernales, Alejandro, 2013. "Risk Management with Thinly Traded Securities: Methodology and Implementation," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4647, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Mauricio Contreras & Alejandro Llanquihu'en & Marcelo Villena, 2015. "On the Solution of the Multi-asset Black-Scholes model: Correlations, Eigenvalues and Geometry," Papers 1510.02768, arXiv.org.
    16. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.),Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    17. Ben Abdallah, Skander & Lasserre, Pierre, 2016. "Asset retirement with infinitely repeated alternative replacements: Harvest age and species choice in forestry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 144-164.
    18. Kau, James B. & Keenan, Donald C., 1999. "Patterns of rational default," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 765-785, November.
    19. Carol Alexandra & Leonardo M. Nogueira, 2005. "Optimal Hedging and Scale Inavriance: A Taxonomy of Option Pricing Models," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2005-10, Henley Business School, Reading University, revised Nov 2005.
    20. Filipe Fontanela & Antoine Jacquier & Mugad Oumgari, 2019. "A Quantum algorithm for linear PDEs arising in Finance," Papers 1912.02753, arXiv.org.
    21. Jun, Doobae & Ku, Hyejin, 2015. "Static hedging of chained-type barrier options," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 317-327.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking crisis; default; credit risk; extreme value theory;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2003_001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (David Edgerton). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/delunse.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.