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Digitization-Based Automation and Occupational Dynamics

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Abstract

We examine the relationship between occupational automation probabilities and employment dynamics over nearly two decades. We show that employment and wage shares of occupations with a higher automation risk have declined in Sweden over the period 1996-2013. This has occurred both in the aggregate private business sector but also within firms, where the wage share changes have been larger than the employment share changes. Combining the automation risk in workers’ occupations with individual worker characteristics, we find substantial heterogeneity. This includes that education dampens the automation risk of workers, as the average automation probability of low-skilled workers is almost twice as high as of university graduates. Employment shares in high-risk occupations have moreover declined across all wage levels, and most so in high-wage occupations.

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  • Gardberg, Malin & Heyman, Fredrik & Norbäck, Pehr-Johan & Persson, Lars, 2019. "Digitization-Based Automation and Occupational Dynamics," Working Paper Series 1299, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:iuiwop:1299
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    Cited by:

    1. Nii-Aponsah, Hubert, 2022. "Automation exposure and implications in advanced and developing countries across gender, age, and skills," MERIT Working Papers 2022-021, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. Ryszard Marszowski & Sebastian Iwaszenko, 2021. "Mining in Poland in Light of Energy Transition: Case Study of Changes Based on the Knowledge Economy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-16, December.
    3. Mr. Andrew Berg & Lahcen Bounader & Nikolay Gueorguiev & Hiroaki Miyamoto & Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Ryota Nakatani & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2021. "For the Benefit of All: Fiscal Policies and Equity-Efficiency Trade-offs in the Age of Automation," IMF Working Papers 2021/187, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Yang Shen & Xiuwu Zhang, 2024. "The impact of artificial intelligence on employment: the role of virtual agglomeration," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-14, December.
    5. Ramos, Minerva E. & Garza-Rodríguez, Jorge & Gibaja-Romero, Damian E., 2022. "Automation of employment in the presence of industry 4.0: The case of Mexico," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Florent Bordot & Andre Lorentz, 2021. "Automation and labor market polarization in an evolutionary model with heterogeneous workers," LEM Papers Series 2021/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Fabian Busch & Robert Fenge & Carsten Ochsen, 2021. "Do Firms Hire More Older Workers? Evidence from Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 9219, CESifo.
    8. Mattias Almgren & John Kramer & Jósef Sigurdsson, 2025. "It Runs in the Family: Occupational Choice and the Allocation of Talent," CESifo Working Paper Series 11808, CESifo.
    9. Hensvik, Lena & Skans, Oskar Nordström, 2023. "The skill-specific impact of past and projected occupational decline," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    10. Fredrik W. Andersson & Henrik Jordahl & Anders Kärnä, 2024. "Ballooning bureaucracy? Stylized facts of growing administration in Swedish higher education," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 303-326, June.
    11. Pablo Casas & Concepción Román, 2024. "The impact of artificial intelligence in the early retirement decision," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(3), pages 583-618, August.
    12. Heyman, Fredrik & Norbäck, Pehr-Johan & Persson, Lars, 2021. "Automation, Work and Productivity: The Role of Firm Heterogeneity," Working Paper Series 1382, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 09 Mar 2023.
    13. Andersson, Fredrik W. & Jordahl, Henrik & Kärnä, Anders, 2021. "Ballooning Bureaucracy: Tracking the Growth of High-Skilled Administration within Swedish Higher Education," Working Paper Series 1399, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    14. Kerstin Hotte & Melline Somers & Angelos Theodorakopoulos, 2022. "Technology and jobs: A systematic literature review," Papers 2204.01296, arXiv.org.
    15. Casas, Pablo & Román, Concepción, 2023. "Early retired or automatized? Evidence from the survey of health, ageing and retirement in Europe," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

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