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The Properties of Procedures Dealing with Uncertainty about Intercept and Deterministic Trend in Unit Root Testing

Author

Listed:
  • Hacker, Scott

    (Jonkoping International Business School)

  • Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser

    (UAE University)

Abstract

The classic Dickey-Fuller unit-root test can be applied using three different equations, depending upon the inclusion of a constant and/or a time trend in the regression equation. This paper investigates the size and power properties of a unit-root testing strategy outlined in Enders (2004), which allows for repeated testing of the unit root with the three equations depending on the significance of various parameters in the equations. This strategy is similar to strategies suggested by others for unit root testing. Our Monte Carlo simulation experiments show that serious mass significance problems prevail when using the strategy suggested by Enders. Excluding the possibility of unrealistic outcomes and using a priori information on whether there is a trend in the underlying time series, as suggested by Elder and Kennedy (2001), reduces the mass significance problem for the unit root test and improves power for that test. Subsequent testing for whether a trend exists is seriously affected by testing for the unit root first, however.

Suggested Citation

  • Hacker, Scott & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser, 2010. "The Properties of Procedures Dealing with Uncertainty about Intercept and Deterministic Trend in Unit Root Testing," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 214, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0214
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Darryl Holden & Roger Perman, 1994. "Unit Roots and Cointegration for the Economist," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 3, pages 47-112, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Ayat, Leila & Burridge, Peter, 2000. "Unit root tests in the presence of uncertainty about the non-stochastic trend," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 71-96, March.
    5. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
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    7. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
    8. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. "Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
    9. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
    10. John Elder & Peter E. Kennedy, 2001. "Testing for Unit Roots: What Should Students Be Taught?," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 137-146, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Pavol Durana & Katarina Valaskova & Darina Chlebikova & Vladislav Krastev & Irina Atanasova, 2020. "Heads and Tails of Earnings Management: Quantitative Analysis in Emerging Countries," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-21, June.
    2. Juárez-Torres, Miriam & Sánchez-Aragón, Leonardo & Vedenov, Dmitry, . "Weather Derivatives and Water Management in Developing Countries: An Application for an Irrigation District in Central Mexico," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(2).
    3. Atiq-ur-Rehman, Atiq-ur-Rehman & Zaman, Asad, 2008. "Model specification, observational equivalence and performance of unit root tests," MPRA Paper 13489, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2024. "On the Asymmetric Volatility Connectedness," Papers 2404.12997, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    5. Atiq-ur-Rehman, 2011. "Impact of Model Specification Decisions on Unit Root Tests," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 3(2), pages 22-33, September.
    6. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Irandoust, Manuchehr, 2010. "An empirical investigation of the informational efficiency of the GCC equity markets: Evidence from bootstrap simulation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 47-54, January.
    7. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2021. "Dynamic Asymmetric Causality Tests with an Application," Papers 2106.07612, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    8. Hacker, Scott, 2010. "The Effectiveness of Information Criteria in Determining Unit Root and Trend Status," Working Paper Series in Economics and Institutions of Innovation 213, Royal Institute of Technology, CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies.
    9. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Fernando Zanella, 2013. "Testing for the government's intertemporal budget restriction in Brazil during 1823--1889," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(12), pages 1533-1540, April.
    10. R. Scott Hacker & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2021. "Model selection in time series analysis: using information criteria as an alternative to hypothesis testing," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(6), pages 1055-1075, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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