IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hhb/aarbfi/2007-03.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Lapse Rate Modeling: A Rational Expectation Approach

Author

Listed:

Abstract

Lapse Rate Modeling: A Rational Expectation Approach Abstract The surrender option embedded in many life insurance products is a clause that allows policyholders to terminate the contract early. Pricing techniques based on the American Contingent Claim (ACC) theory are often used, though the actual policyholders' behavior is far from optimal. Inspired by many prepayment models for mort- gage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation of the corre- sponding two{space{dimensional parabolic partial di®erential equa- tion. Extensive numerical experiments show the di®erences in terms of pricing and interest rate elasticity between the ACC and RE ap- proaches as well as the sensitivity of the contract price with respect to changes in the policyholders' behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • De Giovanni, Domenico, 2007. "Lapse Rate Modeling: A Rational Expectation Approach," Finance Research Group Working Papers F-2007-03, University of Aarhus, Aarhus School of Business, Department of Business Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhb:aarbfi:2007-03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://130.226.203.32/fbspretrieve/868/F_2007_03.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Anand, Amber & Tanggaard, Carsten & Weaver, Daniel G., 2009. "Paying for Market Quality," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(06), pages 1427-1457, December.
    3. Steffensen, Mogens, 2002. "Intervention options in life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 71-85, August.
    4. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1980. "Analyzing Convertible Bonds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 907-929, November.
    5. Bjarke Jensen & Peter Løchte Jørgensen & Anders Grosen, 2001. "A Finite Difference Approach to the Valuation of Path Dependent Life Insurance Liabilities," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 26(1), pages 57-84, June.
    6. David C. Porter & Carsten Tanggaard & Daniel G. Weaver & Wei Yu, 2008. "Dispersed Trading and the Prevention of Market Failure: the Case of the Copenhagen Stock Exchange," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 14(2), pages 243-267.
    7. Grosen, Anders & Lochte Jorgensen, Peter, 2000. "Fair valuation of life insurance liabilities: The impact of interest rate guarantees, surrender options, and bonus policies," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 37-57, February.
    8. Bacinello, Anna Rita, 2005. "Endogenous model of surrender conditions in equity-linked life insurance," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 270-296, October.
    9. Weiyu Kuo & Chenghsien Tsai & Wei-Kuang Chen, 2003. "An Empirical Study on the Lapse Rate: The Cointegration Approach," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 489-508.
    10. Anna Rita Bacinello, 2003. "Fair Valuation of a Guaranteed Life Insurance Participating Contract Embedding a Surrender Option," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 461-487.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Surrender Option; Prepayment Models; Alternating Direction Implicit methods;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhb:aarbfi:2007-03. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Helle Vinbaek Stenholt). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ifhhadk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.