Effort or Luck? Believing in the role of effort during the Spanish economic recession

We explore the effect of the recent large unemployment shock in Spain on people’s beliefs about the role of effort as a determinant of economic position. To do that, we use a series of Spanish public opinion surveys between 2010 and 2017, matched with regional-level unemployment data. We find that people have attributed a larger role to luck in the Spanish provinces where the unemployment rate increased more during the economic recession. This finding persists after controlling for a series of demographic, socio-economic and ideological individual-level variables. In addition, we find that poorer, lower educated individuals, and those who position themselves as more left-wing and “socialist” have adjusted their beliefs more, while individuals who identify as “conservative” have adjusted their beliefs less.