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A game-theoretic analysis of childhood vaccination behavior: Nash versus Kant

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  • Philippe de Donder

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Humberto Llavador

    (UPF - Universitat Pompeu Fabra [Barcelona])

  • Stefan Penczynski

    (UEA - University of East Anglia [Norwich])

  • John E Roemer

    (Yale University [New Haven])

  • Roberto Vélez

    (Centro Estudios Espinosa Yglesias)

Abstract

Whether or not to vaccinate one's child is a decision that a parent may approach in several ways. The vaccination game, in which parents must choose whether to vaccinate a child against a disease, is one with positive externalities (herd immunity). In some societies, not vaccinating is an increasingly prevalent behavior, due to deleterious side effects that parents believe may accompany vaccination. The standard game-theoretic approach assumes that parents make decisions according to the Nash behavioral protocol, which is individualistic and non-cooperative. Because of the positive externality that each child's vaccination generates for others, the Nash equilibrium suffers from a free-rider problem. However, in more solidaristic societies, parents may behave cooperatively –they may optimize according to the Kantian protocol, in which the equilibrium is efficient. We test, on a sample of six countries, whether childhood vaccination behavior conforms better to the individualistic or cooperative protocol. In order to do so, we conduct surveys of parents in these countries, to ascertain the distribution of beliefs concerning the subjective probability and severity of deleterious side effects of vaccination. We show that in all the countries of our sample the Kant model dominates the Nash model. We conjecture that, due to the free-rider problem inherent in the Nash equilibrium, a social norm has evolved, quite generally, inducing parents to vaccinate with higher probability than they would in the noncooperative solution. Kantian equilibrium offers one precise version of such a social norm.

Suggested Citation

  • Philippe de Donder & Humberto Llavador & Stefan Penczynski & John E Roemer & Roberto Vélez, 2021. "A game-theoretic analysis of childhood vaccination behavior: Nash versus Kant," Working Papers hal-03504644, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03504644
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03504644
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Charles A. Holt & Susan K. Laury, 2002. "Risk Aversion and Incentive Effects," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1644-1655, December.
    2. James Alm, 2019. "What Motivates Tax Compliance?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 353-388, April.
    3. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison, 2020. "An Economist's Guide to Epidemiology Models of Infectious Disease," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(4), pages 79-104, Fall.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gregory Ponthiere, 2024. "Epictetusian rationality," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 78(1), pages 219-262, August.
    2. Ponthiere, Gregory, 2023. "Epictetusian Rationality and Evolutionary Stability," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1230, Global Labor Organization (GLO).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kantian equilibrium; Nash equilibrium; Vaccination; Social norm;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D62 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Externalities
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior

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