IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-02469371.html

Depletion of Petroleum Reserves and Oil Price trends

Author

Listed:
  • Denis Babusiaux

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

  • Pierre-René Bauquis

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

Abstract

This document is the report of the "Petroleum" working group from the French Academy of Technology, coordinated by the authors in the framework of the Energy and Climate Change Commission chaired by Gilbert Ruelle. Firstly, it present a synthesis of the different points of view about reserves and the peak of world oil production (optimists, pessimists and official organizations). Secondly, it analyzes the mechanisms of oil price formation focusing on the long term without addressing the question of short term market behaviour. The last section is devoted to possible scenarios of the evolution of production profiles and prices in the medium and long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Denis Babusiaux & Pierre-René Bauquis, 2007. "Depletion of Petroleum Reserves and Oil Price trends," Working Papers hal-02469371, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02469371
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://ifp.hal.science/hal-02469371
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ifp.hal.science/hal-02469371/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert M. Solow, 1974. "The Economics of Resources or the Resources of Economics," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Chennat Gopalakrishnan (ed.), Classic Papers in Natural Resource Economics, chapter 12, pages 257-276, Palgrave Macmillan.
    2. Christophe Barret & Philippe Chollet, 1990. "Canadian Gas Exports : Modeling a Market in Disequilibrium," Working Papers hal-02432570, HAL.
    3. Giraud, Pierre-Noel, 1995. "The equilibrium price range of oil : Economics, politics and uncertainty in the formation of oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 35-49, January.
    4. Harold Hotelling, 1931. "The Economics of Exhaustible Resources," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(2), pages 137-137.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dupoux, Marion, 2019. "The land use change time-accounting failure," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 1-1.
    2. Anthony Paris, 2016. "The Effect of Biofuels on the Link between Oil and Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Smooth Transition Cointegration Approach," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-5, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Castelo Branco, David A. & Szklo, Alexandre S. & Schaeffer, Roberto, 2010. "Co2e emissions abatement costs of reducing natural gas flaring in Brazil by investing in offshore GTL plants producing premium diesel," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 158-167.
    4. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2015. "On the link between oil price and exchange rate : A time-varying VAR parameter approach," Working Papers hal-03206684, HAL.
    5. Emmanuel Hache, 2018. "Do renewable energies improve energy security in the long run?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 156, pages 127-135.
    6. Hebat-Allah El-Deken & Noran Farag & Noha Hamdy, 2011. "Does Non-renewable Energy Utilization in Egypt Generate Net Gain or Net Loss?," Working Papers 585, Economic Research Forum, revised 05 Jan 2011.
    7. Banal-Estanol, A. & Eckhause, J. & Massol, O., 2015. "Incentives for early adoption of carbon capture technology: further considerations from a European perspective," Working Papers 15/03, Department of Economics, City St George's, University of London.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dale W. Henderson & Stephen W. Salant, 1976. "Market anticipations, government policy, and the price of gold," International Finance Discussion Papers 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Hala Abu-Kalla & Ruslana Rachel Palatnik & Ofira Ayalon & Mordechai Shechter, 2020. "Hoard or Exploit? Intergenerational Allocation of Exhaustible Natural Resources," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Fisher, Anthony C, 1981. "Hotelling's "Economics of Exhaustible Resources": Fifty Years Later," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 65-73, March.
    4. Franco, Marco P.V. & Gaspard, Marion & Mueller, Thomas, 2019. "Time discounting in Harold Hotelling's approach to natural resource economics: The unsolved ethical question," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 52-60.
    5. Sorin-George Toma & Paul Marinescu & Catalin Gradinaru, 2016. "The Age Of Sustainable Business Models," Management Strategies Journal, Constantin Brancoveanu University, vol. 34(4), pages 128-132.
    6. Stephen W. Salant, 1977. "Staving off the backstop: dynamic limit-pricing with a kinked demand curve," International Finance Discussion Papers 110, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Schilling, Markus & Chiang, Lichun, 2011. "The effect of natural resources on a sustainable development policy: The approach of non-sustainable externalities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 990-998, February.
    8. Daubanes, Julien, 2011. "Optimal taxation of a monopolistic extractor: Are subsidies necessary?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 399-403, May.
    9. Roma, Antonio & Pirino, Davide, 2009. "The extraction of natural resources: The role of thermodynamic efficiency," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2594-2606, August.
    10. Robert Cairns, 2001. "Capacity Choice and the Theory of the Mine," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 18(1), pages 129-148, January.
    11. Stephen Salant & Joshua Keller, 2024. "How Much is a Nonearning Asset with No Current Capital Gains Worth?," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 7-19, March.
    12. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Andrey Polbin & Andrey Zubarev, 2016. "Will the Paris Accord Accelerate Climate Change?," NBER Working Papers 22731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:17:y:2008:i:13:p:1-11 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Romani, Ilenia Gaia & Comincioli, Nicola & Vergalli, Sergio, 2025. "Climate policy and cartelization risk for critical minerals: An application to the copper market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    15. Manel Kamoun & Ines Abdelkafi & Abdelfetah Ghorbel, 2019. "The Impact of Renewable Energy on Sustainable Growth: Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 10(1), pages 221-237, March.
    16. Smith, James L., 2012. "On the portents of peak oil (and other indicators of resource scarcity)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 68-78.
    17. Manel Kamoun & Ines Abdelkafi & Abdelfetah Ghorbel, 2020. "Does Renewable Energy Technologies and Poverty Affect the Sustainable Growth in Emerging Countries?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 11(3), pages 865-887, September.
    18. Jean-Paul Fitoussi & Éloi Laurent & Jacques Le Cacheux, 2007. "La stratégie environnementale de l'Union européenne," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 381-413.
    19. Heun, Matthew Kuperus & de Wit, Martin, 2012. "Energy return on (energy) invested (EROI), oil prices, and energy transitions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 147-158.
    20. Daniele Schilirò, 2019. "Sustainability, Innovation, and Efficiency: A Key Relationship," Palgrave Studies in Impact Finance, in: Magdalena Ziolo & Bruno S. Sergi (ed.), Financing Sustainable Development, chapter 0, pages 83-102, Palgrave Macmillan.
    21. Jouvet, Pierre-André & Schumacher, Ingmar, 2012. "Learning-by-doing and the costs of a backstop for energy transition and sustainability," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 122-132.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-02469371. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.