IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-01619118.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Fragility of Emerging Currencies Since the 2000s: a Minskyan Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Raquel A Ramos

    (CEPN - Centre d'Economie de l'Université Paris Nord - UP13 - Université Paris 13 - USPC - Université Sorbonne Paris Cité - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

The currencies of a few emerging market economies (EME) have being following a specific dynamic since the early 2000s: they are strongly connected to financial markets internationally , appreciating in moments of tranquility and presenting sharp depreciations in peaks of uncertainty. What is the mechanism behind this specific dynamic that contradicts mainstream exchange-rate theories? To answer this question, this article applies the Minskyan framework to the context of money managers and their portfolio allocation decisions. The approach allows the analysis of these currencies through money managers' decisions, putting forward that these might float according to their balance-sheet constraints-reasons not related to the currencies themselves, but to money managers' assets, liabilities, and currency mismatch. The result is a dynamic characterized by deviation-amplifying system, the opposite of the equilibrium-seeking mechanism needed for clearing markets, and high frequency of depreciations associated to the global extent of these institutions' balance-sheet.

Suggested Citation

  • Raquel A Ramos, 2017. "The Fragility of Emerging Currencies Since the 2000s: a Minskyan Analysis," Working Papers hal-01619118, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01619118
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-01619118
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-01619118/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jan Kregel, 2004. "Can we create a stable international financial environment that ensures net resource transfers to developing countries?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 573-590.
    2. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Jan A. Kregel, 1998. "Yes, 'It' Did Happen Again: A Minsky Crisis Happened in Asia," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_234, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Marion Fourcade, 2013. "The material and symbolic construction of the BRICs: Reflections inspired by the RIPE Special Issue," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 256-267, April.
    5. Martín Rapetti, 2013. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: Some Observations on the Possible Channels," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2013-11, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    6. Fritz, Barbara & Prates, Daniela Magalhães, 2016. "Beyond capital controls: regulation of foreign currency derivatives markets in the Republic of Korea and Brazil after the global financial crisis," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.
    7. Mart�n Rapetti & Peter Skott & Arslan Razmi, 2012. "The real exchange rate and economic growth: are developing countries different?," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 735-753, April.
    8. Philip Arestis, 2002. "Financial crisis in Southeast Asia: dispelling illusion the Minskyan way," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 26(2), pages 237-260, March.
    9. Fabrício J. Missio & Frederico G. Jayme Jr. & Gustavo Britto & José Luis Oreiro, 2015. "Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth: New Empirical Evidence," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(4), pages 686-714, November.
    10. Luiz Fernando R. De Paula & Antonio José Alves, 2000. "External Financial Fragility and the 1998-1999 Brazilian Currency Crisis," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 589-617, July.
    11. Dimitri B. Papadimitriou & L. Randall Wray, 1997. "A Tribute to Hyman P. Minsky," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 491-492, June.
    12. Cottani, Joaquin A & Cavallo, Domingo F & Khan, M Shahbaz, 1990. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior and Economic Performance in LDCs," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 39(1), pages 61-76, October.
    13. Annina Kaltenbrunner & Juan Pablo Painceira, 2015. "Developing countries’ changing nature of financial integration and new forms of external vulnerability: the Brazilian experience," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 39(5), pages 1281-1306.
    14. Martin H. Wolfson, 2002. "Minsky’s Theory of Financial Crises in a Global Context," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 393-400, June.
    15. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5a5m6mrpgl8dlbhfjigc98ug8o is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
    17. Annina Kaltenbrunner, 2015. "A post Keynesian framework of exchange rate determination: a Minskyan approach," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 426-448, October.
    18. K.S. Jomo & Ilene Grabel & Gerald Epstein, 2003. "Capital Management Techniques In Developing Countries: An Assessment of Experiences From the 1990s and Lessons for the Future," Working Papers wp56, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    19. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael, 2010. "Exchange Market Pressure and Absorption by International Reserves: Emerging Markets and Fear of Reserve Loss During the 2008-09 Crisis," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8g25f4qs, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    20. Rogerio Andrade & Daniela Prates, 2013. "Exchange rate dynamics in a peripheral monetary economy," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 399-416.
    21. Heiner FLASSBECK, 2002. "The Exchange Rate: Economic Policy Tool Or Market Price?," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 157, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5a5m6mrpgl8dlbhfjigc98ug8o is not listed on IDEAS
    23. -, 2011. "Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2010-2011: Internacional integration and macroeconomic policy challenges amid global economic turmoil," Estudio Económico de América Latina y el Caribe, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), number 1075 edited by Eclac, September.
    24. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    25. Lane, Philip & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, "undated". "External Wealth of Nations," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics extwealth, Boston College Department of Economics.
    26. Marion Fourcade, 2013. "The material and symbolic construction of the BRICs," Post-Print hal-03473894, HAL.
    27. Arslan Razmi & Martin Rapetti & Peter Skott, 2009. "The Real Exchange Rate as an Instrument of Development Policy," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2009-07, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    28. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-544, April.
    29. Barbara Fritz & Daniela Prates, 2014. "The new IMF approach to capital account management and its blind spots: lessons from Brazil and South Korea," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 210-239, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Raquel Almeida Ramos, 2017. "The Fragility of Emerging Currencies Since the 2000s - a Minskyan Analysis," CEPN Working Papers 2017-18, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    2. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-01619118 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bruno Bonizzi, 2017. "International financialisation, developing countries and the contradictions of privatised Keynesianism," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 21-40, January.
    4. Kohler, Karsten, 2019. "Exchange rate dynamics, balance sheet effects, and capital flows. A Minskyan model of emerging market boom-bust cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 270-283.
    5. Karsten Kohler & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2023. "Flexible exchange rates in emerging markets: shock absorbers or drivers of endogenous cycles?," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 32(2), pages 551-572.
    6. Cécile Couharde & Carl Grekou & Valérie Mignon & Florian Morvillier, 2024. "Reconciling contrasting views on the growth effect of currency undervaluations," Working Papers hal-04568924, HAL.
    7. Lampe, Florian, 2024. "The exchange rate regime of the WAEMU: Monetary stability at the expense of current account deficits and rising external financial liabilities? A post-Keynesian view," ZÖSS-Discussion Papers 111, University of Hamburg, Centre for Economic and Sociological Studies (CESS/ZÖSS).
    8. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos & Feijó, Carmem & Araújo, Eliane Cristina, 2025. "The determination of the exchange rate: A new-developmental approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 245-255.
    9. Bruno Bonizzi, 2013. "Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: An alternative Theoretical Framework," Working Papers 186, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    10. Daniela Magalhães Prates & Luiz Fernando De Paula, 2016. "Financial Flows To Emerging Economies And Policy Alternatives In Post-2008," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 117, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    11. Agustin Benetrix & Michael Curran, 2020. "Uncertainty Shocks and the Cross-Border Funding of Banks: Unmasking Heterogeneity," Trinity Economics Papers tep0920, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    12. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide, 2019. "Uncertainty and cross-border banking flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 260-274.
    13. Douglas Alencar & Frederico G. Jayme Jr & Gustavo Britto, 2021. "A post-Kaleckian model with productivity growth and real exchange rate applied to selected Latin American countries," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 74(297), pages 127-146.
    14. Köhler, Karsten, 2016. "Currency devaluations, aggregate demand, and debt dynamics in an economy with foreign currency liabilities," IPE Working Papers 78/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    15. Couharde, Cécile & Grekou, Carl & Mignon, Valérie & Morvillier, Florian, 2025. "Reconciling contrasting views on the growth effect of currency misalignments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    16. Kazandziska, Milka, 2022. "Financialization in emerging Europe," IPE Working Papers 183/2022, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    17. Ligonniere, Samuel, 2018. "Trilemma, dilemma and global players," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 20-39.
    18. Daren Conrad & Jaymieon Jagessar, 2018. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignment and Economic Growth: The Case of Trinidad and Tobago," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-23, September.
    19. Florence Dafe & Annina Kaltenbrunner & Ingrid Harvold Kvangraven & Iván Weigandi, 2023. "Local Currency Bond Markets in Africa: Resilience and Subordination," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 54(5), pages 1031-1064, September.
    20. Özmen, Erdal & Taşdemir, Fatma, 2024. "Globalisation and governance: Thresholds for the impacts of the main determinants of capital inflows?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 168-176.
    21. Ms. Camelia Minoiu & Patrick A. Imam, 2008. "Mauritius: A Competitiveness Assessment," IMF Working Papers 2008/212, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01619118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.