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Sleeping Beauty and the absent-minded driver

Author

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  • Jean Baratgin

    (CRAC - Laboratoire de Conception et de Réalisation des Applications Complexes - EPM - École Polytechnique de Montréal, IJN - Institut Jean-Nicod - DEC - Département d'Etudes Cognitives - ENS Paris - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CdF (institution) - Collège de France - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Département de Philosophie - ENS Paris - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres)

  • Bernard Walliser

    (PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

Abstract

The Sleeping Beauty problem is presented in a formalized framework which summarizes the underlying probability structure. The two rival solutions proposed by Elga (Analysis 60:143-147, 2000) and Lewis (Analysis 61:171-176, 2001) differ by a single parameter concerning her prior probability. They can be supported by considering, respectively, that Sleeping Beauty is "fuzzy-minded" and "blank-minded", the first interpretation being more natural than the second. The traditional absent-minded driver problem is reinterpreted in this framework and sustains Elga's solution.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Baratgin & Bernard Walliser, 2010. "Sleeping Beauty and the absent-minded driver," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754429, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:halshs-00754429
    DOI: 10.1007/s11238-010-9215-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Piccione, Michele & Rubinstein, Ariel, 1997. "On the Interpretation of Decision Problems with Imperfect Recall," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 3-24, July.
    2. Board, Oliver, 2003. "The not-so-absent-minded driver," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(3), pages 189-200, September.
    3. Aumann, Robert J. & Hart, Sergiu & Perry, Motty, 1997. "The Absent-Minded Driver," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 102-116, July.
    4. Nicola Dimitri, 2009. "Dynamic consistency in extensive form decision problems," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 345-354, April.
    5. Aumann, Robert J. & Hart, Sergiu & Perry, Motty, 1997. "The Forgetful Passenger," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 117-120, July.
    6. Bernard Walliser & Denis Zwirn, 2002. "Can Bayes' Rule be Justified by Cognitive Rationality Principles?," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 95-135, September.
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