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Ruptures épaisses et stationnarité en tendance : le cas du taux de change euro-dollar

  • Jean-François Goux

    (GATE - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - Ecole Normale Supérieure Lettres et Sciences Humaines)

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    The taking into account of a period of break (thick break) makes it possible to correctly analyze the time series of the euro-dollar exchange rate. By retaining the posterior period with the Louvre agreements, but by eliminating the first years from existence of the euro, and until today, one can affirm that this rate is stationary and after trend stationary and thus that there is a mechanism of return towards a level (a trend) of equilibrium. This point is shown using a new procedure of test based on the elimination of thick breaks. That makes it possible to propose a forecast based on this deterministic trend

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    Date of creation: 2008
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    Publication status: Published in Working Paper GATE 2008-26. 2008
    Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00333576
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00333576
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