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Le taux de change euro-dollar : une approche fondee sur la co-integration avec break structurel

Author

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  • Jean-Francois Goux

Abstract

Lorsqu’on etudie des donnees macro-economiques, il est souvent pertinent d’introduire des ruptures dans l’analyse statistique. En particulier, la technique de la co-integration avec rupture structurelle peut s’averer interessante. Cet article propose une application du modele de Johansen et al. (2000) dans le cas du taux de change euro-dollar. Nous presentons le modele pertinent pour une telle analyse et demontrons que certains fondamentaux (prix, taux d’interet) retrouvent une partie de leur pouvoir explicatif lorsque des ruptures structurelles sont introduites dans la composante deterministe. Mais le mecanisme principal reste le retour a la moyenne vers une tendance coudee.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Francois Goux, 2005. "Le taux de change euro-dollar : une approche fondee sur la co-integration avec break structurel," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 103, pages 45-72.
  • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepiei:2005-3tc
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    File URL: http://www.cepii.fr/IE/rev103/rev103c.htm
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-François Goux, 2010. "Une approche déterministe du taux de change euro-dollar," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 195(4), pages 35-51.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Taux de change euro-dollar; co-integration; tendance coudee;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements

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