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Potential and challenges for sustainable progress in human longevity

Author

Listed:
  • Florian Bonnet

    (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques)

  • Ina Alliger

    (BIB - Federal Institute for Population Research)

  • Carlo Giovanni Camarda

    (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques)

  • Sebastian Klüsener

    (BIB - Federal Institute for Population Research, Universität zu Köln = University of Cologne, VDU - Vytautas Magnus University - Vytauto Didziojo Universitetas)

  • France Meslé

    (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques)

  • Michael Mühlichen

    (BIB - Federal Institute for Population Research)

  • Josselin Thuilliez

    (CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Pavel Grigoriev

    (BIB - Federal Institute for Population Research)

Abstract

Decelerating gains in life expectancy ( e 0 ) in high-income countries have raised concerns about the future of human longevity. To enhance our understanding of these developments, we examine subnational ( N = 450) mortality trends in Western Europe in the period 1992-2019. Between 1992 and 2005, gains in life expectancy were both substantial and widespread. Laggard regions experienced the fastest improvements, yielding rapid regional convergence. Between 2005 and 2019, however, gains in these regions decelerated, while remaining remarkably stable in vanguard regions, suggesting that it remains possible to continue extending longevity. The observed slowing of e 0 gains is strongly associated with mortality at ages 55-74, which increased in this period across large areas of Western Europe, particularly in Germany and France. In this work, we show that monitoring mortality trends at a fine geographical level is crucial for revealing both the potential for, and challenges to, sustainable progress in human longevity.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Bonnet & Ina Alliger & Carlo Giovanni Camarda & Sebastian Klüsener & France Meslé & Michael Mühlichen & Josselin Thuilliez & Pavel Grigoriev, 2026. "Potential and challenges for sustainable progress in human longevity," Post-Print hal-05481231, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05481231
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-026-68828-z
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-05481231v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Anne Case & Angua Deaton, 2015. "Rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century," Working Papers 15078.full.pdf, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
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