The Employment Prospects of Young Graduates in Italy during and after the 2008 Crisis[Les perspectives d’emploi des jeunes diplômés en Italie pendant et après la crise de 2008]

The school‑to‑work‑transition in Italy suffers a number of critical issues. This paper documents the employment prospects of young Italians graduates during the economic recession (2008‑2014) and in the subsequent period of recovery (2015‑2017). The analysis, based on data from the European Labour Force Survey, focuses on the employment rate of recent graduates in the 20‑34 age group, an indicator adopted by Europe to monitor transitions from school to work. We distinguish temporary employment, and examine in parallel the employment rates of those beyond three years after graduation. Logit model estimations of the probability to be employed, accounting for educational attainment and time spent in the labour market, show that seniority did not provide significant protection during the crisis, and that tertiary graduates were less affected by the crisis than upper secondary graduates, and have benefited more from the recovery. An analysis of pseudo‑cohorts' trajectories suggests no evidence of a scarring effect but, for upper secondary graduates only, the changes in temporary employment rates evoke cohort effects.