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Investigating the ‘Bolsonaro effect’ on the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic: An empirical analysis of observational data in Brazil

Author

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  • Mireille Razafindrakoto

    (LEDA-DIAL - Développement, Institutions et Modialisation - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • François Roubaud

    (LEDA-DIAL - Développement, Institutions et Modialisation - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Marta Reis Castilho

    (UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Federal University of Rio de Janeiro [Brazil] = Université fédérale de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil])

  • Valeria Pero

    (UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Federal University of Rio de Janeiro [Brazil] = Université fédérale de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil])

  • João Saboia

    (UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Federal University of Rio de Janeiro [Brazil] = Université fédérale de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil])

Abstract

Brazil counts among the countries the hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. A great deal has been said about the negative role played by President Bolsonaro's denialism, but relatively few studies have attempted to measure precisely what impact it actually had on the pandemic. Our paper conducts econometric estimates based on observational data at municipal level to quantitatively assess the ‘Bolsonaro effect' over time from March 2020 to December 2022. To our knowledge, this paper presents the most comprehensive investigation of Bolsonaro's influence in the spread of the pandemic from two angles: considering Covid-19 mortality and two key transmission mitigation channels (social distancing and vaccination); and exploring the full pandemic cycle (2020–2022) and its dynamics over time. Controlling for a rich set of relevant variables, our results find a strong and persistent ‘Bolsonaro effect' on the death rate: municipalities that were more pro-Bolsonaro recorded significantly more fatalities. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the president's attitude and decisions negatively influenced the population's behaviour. Firstly, pro-Bolsonaro municipalities presented a lower level of compliance with social distancing measures. Secondly, vaccination was relatively less widespread in places more in favour of the former president. Finally, our analysis points to longer-lasting and damaging repercussions. Regression results are consistent with the hypothesis that the ‘Bolsonaro effect' impacted not only on Covid-19 vaccination, but has affected vaccination campaigns in general thereby jeopardizing the historical success of the National Immunization Program in Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Mireille Razafindrakoto & François Roubaud & Marta Reis Castilho & Valeria Pero & João Saboia, 2024. "Investigating the ‘Bolsonaro effect’ on the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic: An empirical analysis of observational data in Brazil," Post-Print hal-04929384, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04929384
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288894
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04929384v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicolás Ajzenman & Tiago Cavalcanti & Daniel Da Mata, 2023. "More than Words: Leaders' Speech and Risky Behavior during a Pandemic," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 351-371, August.
    2. Michael Bayerlein & Vanessa A. Boese & Scott Gates & Katrin Kamin & Syed Mansoob Murshed, 2021. "Populism and COVID-19: How Populist Governments (Mis)Handle the Pandemic," Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 389-428, December.
    3. Jeffrey D Sachs & Salim S Abdool Karim & Lara Aknin & Joseph Allen & Kirsten Brosbol & Francesca Colombo & Gabriela Cuevas Barron & Maria Fernanda Espinosa & Vitor Gaspar & Alejandro Gaviria & Andy Ha, 2022. "The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic," DEOS Working Papers 2226, Athens University of Economics and Business.
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