IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-04929384.html

Investigating the ‘Bolsonaro effect’ on the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic: An empirical analysis of observational data in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Mireille Razafindrakoto

    (LEDA-DIAL - Développement, Institutions et Modialisation - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • François Roubaud

    (LEDA-DIAL - Développement, Institutions et Modialisation - LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Marta Reis Castilho

    (UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Federal University of Rio de Janeiro [Brazil] = Université fédérale de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil])

  • Valeria Pero

    (UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Federal University of Rio de Janeiro [Brazil] = Université fédérale de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil])

  • João Saboia

    (UFRJ - Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro [Brasil] = Federal University of Rio de Janeiro [Brazil] = Université fédérale de Rio de Janeiro [Brésil])

Abstract

Brazil counts among the countries the hardest hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. A great deal has been said about the negative role played by President Bolsonaro's denialism, but relatively few studies have attempted to measure precisely what impact it actually had on the pandemic. Our paper conducts econometric estimates based on observational data at municipal level to quantitatively assess the ‘Bolsonaro effect' over time from March 2020 to December 2022. To our knowledge, this paper presents the most comprehensive investigation of Bolsonaro's influence in the spread of the pandemic from two angles: considering Covid-19 mortality and two key transmission mitigation channels (social distancing and vaccination); and exploring the full pandemic cycle (2020–2022) and its dynamics over time. Controlling for a rich set of relevant variables, our results find a strong and persistent ‘Bolsonaro effect' on the death rate: municipalities that were more pro-Bolsonaro recorded significantly more fatalities. Furthermore, evidence suggests that the president's attitude and decisions negatively influenced the population's behaviour. Firstly, pro-Bolsonaro municipalities presented a lower level of compliance with social distancing measures. Secondly, vaccination was relatively less widespread in places more in favour of the former president. Finally, our analysis points to longer-lasting and damaging repercussions. Regression results are consistent with the hypothesis that the ‘Bolsonaro effect' impacted not only on Covid-19 vaccination, but has affected vaccination campaigns in general thereby jeopardizing the historical success of the National Immunization Program in Brazil.

Suggested Citation

  • Mireille Razafindrakoto & François Roubaud & Marta Reis Castilho & Valeria Pero & João Saboia, 2024. "Investigating the ‘Bolsonaro effect’ on the spread of the Covid-19 pandemic: An empirical analysis of observational data in Brazil," Post-Print hal-04929384, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04929384
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0288894
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04929384v1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-04929384v1/document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0288894?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicolás Ajzenman & Tiago Cavalcanti & Daniel Da Mata, 2023. "More than Words: Leaders' Speech and Risky Behavior during a Pandemic," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 351-371, August.
    2. Michael Bayerlein & Vanessa A. Boese & Scott Gates & Katrin Kamin & Syed Mansoob Murshed, 2021. "Populism and COVID-19: How Populist Governments (Mis)Handle the Pandemic," Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 389-428, December.
    3. Jeffrey D Sachs & Salim S Abdool Karim & Lara Aknin & Joseph Allen & Kirsten Brosbol & Francesca Colombo & Gabriela Cuevas Barron & Maria Fernanda Espinosa & Vitor Gaspar & Alejandro Gaviria & Andy Ha, 2022. "The Lancet Commission on lessons for the future from the COVID-19 pandemic," DEOS Working Papers 2226, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bruce, Raphael & Cavgias, Alexsandros & Meloni, Luis & Remígio, Mário, 2022. "Under pressure: Women’s leadership during the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    2. Lucia Freira & Marco Sartorio & Cynthia Boruchowicz & Florencia Lopez Boo & Joaquin Navajas, 2021. "The interplay between partisanship, forecasted COVID-19 deaths, and support for preventive policies," Humanities and Social Sciences Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Akfırat, Serap & Bayrak, Fatih & Üzümçeker, Emir & Ergiyen, Tolga & Yurtbakan, Taylan & Uysal, Mete Sefa, 2023. "The roles of social norms and leadership in health communication in the context of COVID-19," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    4. Schenkel, Marina, 2024. "Health emergencies, science contrarianism and populism: A scoping review," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    5. Aksoy, Cevat Giray & Ganslmeier, Michael & Poutvaara, Panu, 2020. "Public Attention and Policy Responses to COVID-19 Pandemic," IZA Discussion Papers 13427, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Seres, Gyula & Balleyer, Anna Helen & Cerutti, Nicola & Danilov, Anastasia & Friedrichsen, Jana & Liu, Yiming & Süer, Müge, 2021. "Face masks increase compliance with physical distancing recommendations during the COVID-19 pandemic," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(2), pages 139-158.
    7. Mauricio I. Dussauge-Laguna, 2022. "The promises and perils of populism for democratic policymaking: the case of Mexico," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 55(4), pages 777-803, December.
    8. Lowe, Matt & Nadhanael, G.V. & Roth, Benjamin N., 2021. "India’s food supply chain during the pandemic," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    9. Barry Eichengreen & Orkun Saka & Cevat Giray Aksoy, 2024. "The Political Scar of Epidemics," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(660), pages 1683-1700.
    10. Phillip Keefer & Carlos Scartascini, 2022. "Organization, Citizenship, and the Social Contract," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Phillip Keefer & Carlos Scartascini (ed.), Trust: The Key to Social Cohesion and Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, chapter 8, pages 195-222, Inter-American Development Bank.
    11. Soltanzadeh, Javad & Sahebjamnia, Navid & Khosroshahi, Elnaz Mesma & Bouguerra, Abderaouf, 2024. "Commercializing Covid-19 diagnostic technologies: A review of challenges, success factors, and insights from the profiting from innovation framework," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    12. Süheyla Üçışık Erbilen & Merve Uysal, 2023. "The Common Point of Countries Successful Policies in the Struggle Against COVID-19: Women Leaders," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, June.
    13. World Bank, "undated". "Europe and Central Asia Economic Update, Spring 2021," World Bank Publications - Reports 35273, The World Bank Group.
    14. Javier Perez-Saez & Mathilde Bellon & Justin Lessler & Julie Berthelot & Emma B. Hodcroft & Grégoire Michielin & Francesco Pennacchio & Julien Lamour & Florian Laubscher & Arnaud G. L’Huillier & Klara, 2025. "Evolving infectious disease dynamics shape school-based intervention effectiveness," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-13, December.
    15. Antonini, Marcello & Genie, Mesfin G. & Attwell, Katie & Attema, Arthur E. & Ward, Jeremy K. & Melegaro, Alessia & Torbica, Aleksandra & Kelly, Brian & Berardi, Chiara & Sequeira, Ana Rita & McGregor,, 2025. "Are we ready for the next pandemic? Public preferences and trade-offs between vaccine characteristics and societal restrictions across 21 countries," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 366(C).
    16. Stefano Castriota & Marco Delmastro & Mirco Tonin, 2023. "National or local infodemic? The demand for news in Italy during COVID-19," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 507-536, December.
    17. Samuel Berlinski & Matias Busso & Phillip Keefer & Carlos Scartascini, 2022. "A Primer on Trust: Measures and Determinants," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Phillip Keefer & Carlos Scartascini (ed.), Trust: The Key to Social Cohesion and Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, chapter 2, pages 27-50, Inter-American Development Bank.
    18. Adam Altmejd & Joacim Rocklöv & Jonas Wallin, 2023. "Nowcasting COVID-19 Statistics Reported with Delay: A Case-Study of Sweden and the UK," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(4), pages 1-14, February.
    19. Yuri Kwon & Sooyoun Kristina Zong & Namhee Kim & Yuhyun Choi & Incheol Choi, 2025. "Social Class and Well-being Trajectories during COVID-19: A 4-year Longitudinal Study Revealed a Steeper Decline among Higher-class Individuals in South Korea," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 176(3), pages 1021-1042, February.
    20. Miguel Porrua & Benjamin Roseth, 2022. "The Link between Trust and Digital Transformation," IDB Publications (Book Chapters), in: Phillip Keefer & Carlos Scartascini (ed.), Trust: The Key to Social Cohesion and Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean, edition 1, chapter 6, pages 143-168, Inter-American Development Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04929384. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.