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Politique budgétaire, Investissement privé et performance macroéconomique en République démocratique du Congo

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  • Elie Ndemba Tshilambu

    (UPC - Université protestante au Congo)

Abstract

Ce papier tente d'apprécier l'incidence de la politique budgétaire sur l'investissement privé et la croissance économique en R.D. Congo de 1990-2018. Dans ce sens, il évalue l'intensité du multiplicateur Budgétaire afin de statuer sur mécanisme budgétaire de quelques sous périodes. Une régression simple servira à cette fin. Nous estimons, comme Katuala (2020), un modèle de Vecteurs Autorégressifs structurels sous l'approche Bayésienne (B-SVAR) pour vérifier l'effet d'éviction et la dynamique macroéconomique sur les séries trimestrielles obtenues après désagrégation (Denton, 1971). La causalité de Granger (1980) et la cointégration de Johansen (1991) permettront de statuer sur les liens entre variables alors que l'identification des chocs du modèle s'inspire des travaux de Binning (2013) qui combinent les restrictions de signes et de zéros tant à court terme qu'à long terme dans le cadre de modèles VAR structurels sousidentifiés. Nos résultats ont révélé que : (i) Le multiplicateur budgétaire est très faible mais significatif. Ce qui pourrait justifier la faible force impulsive des investissements publics sur l'activité économique en R.D. Congo ; (ii) les chocs sur le Dépenses publiques n'ont pas donné des retombées escomptées sur la croissance économique ; (iii) les cours du cuivre sont restés rigides. Ce qui prouve que la R.D. Congo est un petit pays face à la scène internationale et (iv) Les investissements privés réagissent positivement aux soldes budgétaires et dépenses en capital du gouvernement congolais. Cette relation réfute l'hypothèse d'effet d'éviction.

Suggested Citation

  • Elie Ndemba Tshilambu, 2022. "Politique budgétaire, Investissement privé et performance macroéconomique en République démocratique du Congo ," Post-Print hal-03627267, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03627267
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03627267
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Politique Budgétaire; Investissement privé; Croissance économique; Analyse bayésienne Classification JEL : E62; E22; O40; C11 Fiscal Policy; Private Investment; Economic Growth; Bayesian Analysis JEL classification : E62; C11;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General

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