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The impacts of variable renewable production and market coupling on the convergence of French and German electricity prices

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Horst Keppler

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Yannick Le Pen

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Sébastien Phan

Abstract

As speculative flows into commodity futures are expected to link commodity prices more strongly to equity indices, we investigate whether this process also creates increased correlations amongst the commodities themselves. Considering U.S. oil and gas futures, we investigate whether common factors, derived from a large international data set of real and nominal macroeconomic variables by means of the large approximate factor models methodology, are able to explain both returns and whether, beyond these fundamental common factors, the residuals remain correlated. We further investigate a possible explanation for this residual correlation by using some proxies for trading intensity derived from CFTC publicly available data, showing most notably that the proxy for speculation in the oil market increases the oil-gas correlation. We thus identify the central role of financial activities in shaping the link between oil and gas returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Horst Keppler & Yannick Le Pen & Sébastien Phan, 2016. "The impacts of variable renewable production and market coupling on the convergence of French and German electricity prices," Post-Print hal-01609447, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01609447
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.3.jkep
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Gugler & Adhurim Haxhimusa, 2016. "Cross-Border Technology Differences and Trade Barriers: Evidence from German and French Electricity Markets," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp237, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Tselika, Kyriaki, 2022. "The impact of variable renewables on the distribution of hourly electricity prices and their variability: A panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    3. Brennan, Noreen & van Rensburg, Thomas M., 2020. "Public preferences for wind farms involving electricity trade and citizen engagement in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    4. Newbery, David & Gissey, Giorgio Castagneto & Guo, Bowei & Dodds, Paul E., 2019. "The private and social value of British electrical interconnectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Frondel, Manuel & Kaeding, Matthias & Sommer, Stephan, 2022. "Market premia for renewables in Germany: The effect on electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    6. Rinne, Sonja, 2018. "Radioinactive: Are nuclear power plant outages in France contagious to the German electricity price?," CIW Discussion Papers 3/2018, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    7. Adeoye, Omotola & Spataru, Catalina, 2020. "Quantifying the integration of renewable energy sources in West Africa's interconnected electricity network," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    8. Pfeifer, Antun & Krajačić, Goran & Haas, Reinhard & Duić, Neven, 2020. "Consequences of different strategic decisions of market coupled zones on the development of energy systems based on coal and hydropower," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    9. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim, 2016. "Cross-Border Technology Differences and Trade Barriers: Evidence from German and French Electricity Markets," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 237, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    10. Klaus Gugler & Adhurim Haxhimusa & Mario Liebensteiner, 2016. "Integration and Efficiency of European Electricity Markets: Evidence from Spot Prices," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp226, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    11. Sébastien Phan & Fabien Roques, 2015. "Is the depressive effect of renewables on power prices contagious? A cross border econometric analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1527, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    12. Yasir Alsaedi & Gurudeo Anand Tularam & Victor Wong, 2020. "Impact of Solar and Wind Prices on the Integrated Global Electricity Spot and Options Markets: A Time Series Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 337-353.
    13. Samarth Kumar & David Schönheit & Matthew Schmidt & Dominik Möst, 2019. "Parsing the Effects of Wind and Solar Generation on the German Electricity Trade Surplus," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.
    14. Theresa Graefe, 2023. "The effect of the Austrian-German bidding zone split on unplanned cross-border flows," Papers 2303.14182, arXiv.org.
    15. Finn Roar Aune & Rolf Golombek, 2020. "Are carbon prices redundant in the 2030 EU climate and energy policy package?," Discussion Papers 940, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    16. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim, 2019. "Market integration and technology mix: Evidence from the German and French electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 30-46.
    17. Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti, 2019. "Market coupling between electricity markets: theory and empirical evidence for the Italian–Slovenian interconnection," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(2), pages 527-548, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    electricity price convergence; renewable energies; intermittency; market coupling; France; Germany;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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