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The impacts of variable renewable production and market coupling on the convergence of French and German electricity prices

Author

Listed:
  • Jan Horst Keppler

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Yannick Le Pen

    (LEDa - Laboratoire d'Economie de Dauphine - IRD - Institut de Recherche pour le Développement - Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Sébastien Phan

Abstract

As speculative flows into commodity futures are expected to link commodity prices more strongly to equity indices, we investigate whether this process also creates increased correlations amongst the commodities themselves. Considering U.S. oil and gas futures, we investigate whether common factors, derived from a large international data set of real and nominal macroeconomic variables by means of the large approximate factor models methodology, are able to explain both returns and whether, beyond these fundamental common factors, the residuals remain correlated. We further investigate a possible explanation for this residual correlation by using some proxies for trading intensity derived from CFTC publicly available data, showing most notably that the proxy for speculation in the oil market increases the oil-gas correlation. We thus identify the central role of financial activities in shaping the link between oil and gas returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Horst Keppler & Yannick Le Pen & Sébastien Phan, 2016. "The impacts of variable renewable production and market coupling on the convergence of French and German electricity prices," Post-Print hal-01609447, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01609447
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.3.jkep
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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Gugler & Adhurim Haxhimusa, 2016. "Cross-Border Technology Differences and Trade Barriers: Evidence from German and French Electricity Markets," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp237, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    2. Sébastien Phan & Fabien Roques, 2015. "Is the Depressive Effect of Renewables on Power Prices Contagious? A Cross Border Econometric Analysis," Working Papers EPRG 1517, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    3. De Blauwe, Jilles & Deissenroth-Uhrig, Marc & Mantke, Henrik & Keles, Dogan, 2025. "Cross-border effects on electricity spot prices - a meta-study," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    4. Newbery, David & Gissey, Giorgio Castagneto & Guo, Bowei & Dodds, Paul E., 2019. "The private and social value of British electrical interconnectors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim & Liebensteiner, Mario, 2016. "Integration and Efficiency of European Electricity Markets: Evidence from Spot Prices," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 226, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    6. Flottmann, Jonty, 2024. "Australian energy policy decisions in the wake of the 2022 energy crisis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 238-248.
    7. Kota Sugimoto, 2024. "Competitive effects of implicit auction on interconnectors: evidence from Japan," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 95-134, August.
    8. Loizidis, Stylianos & Venizelou, Venizelos & Kyprianou, Andreas & Georghiou, George E., 2025. "Integrating PNN classification and ELM-Bootstrap for enhanced Day-Ahead negative price forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 392(C).
    9. Tselika, Kyriaki, 2022. "The impact of variable renewables on the distribution of hourly electricity prices and their variability: A panel approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    10. Jan Horst Keppler and William Meunier, 2018. "Determining Optimal Interconnection Capacity on the Basis of Hourly Demand And Supply Functions of Electricity," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    11. Brennan, Noreen & van Rensburg, Thomas M., 2020. "Public preferences for wind farms involving electricity trade and citizen engagement in Ireland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    12. Frondel, Manuel & Kaeding, Matthias & Sommer, Stephan, 2022. "Market premia for renewables in Germany: The effect on electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    13. Rinne, Sonja, 2018. "Radioinactive: Are nuclear power plant outages in France contagious to the German electricity price?," CIW Discussion Papers 3/2018, University of Münster, Center for Interdisciplinary Economics (CIW).
    14. Adeoye, Omotola & Spataru, Catalina, 2020. "Quantifying the integration of renewable energy sources in West Africa's interconnected electricity network," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    15. Pfeifer, Antun & Krajačić, Goran & Haas, Reinhard & Duić, Neven, 2020. "Consequences of different strategic decisions of market coupled zones on the development of energy systems based on coal and hydropower," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    16. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim, 2016. "Cross-Border Technology Differences and Trade Barriers: Evidence from German and French Electricity Markets," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 237, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    17. Yasir Alsaedi & Gurudeo Anand Tularam & Victor Wong, 2020. "Impact of Solar and Wind Prices on the Integrated Global Electricity Spot and Options Markets: A Time Series Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 337-353.
    18. Luis María Abadie & José Manuel Chamorro, 2024. "On the Dynamics of Spot Power Prices across Western Europe in Pandemic Times," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-24, July.
    19. Samarth Kumar & David Schönheit & Matthew Schmidt & Dominik Möst, 2019. "Parsing the Effects of Wind and Solar Generation on the German Electricity Trade Surplus," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-17, September.
    20. Theresa Graefe, 2023. "The effect of the Austrian-German bidding zone split on unplanned cross-border flows," Papers 2303.14182, arXiv.org.
    21. Finn Roar Aune and Rolf Golombek, 2021. "Are Carbon Prices Redundant in the 2030 EU Climate and Energy Policy Package?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 225-264.
    22. Gugler, Klaus & Haxhimusa, Adhurim, 2019. "Market integration and technology mix: Evidence from the German and French electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 30-46.
    23. Tselika, Kyriaki & Tselika, Maria & Demetriades, Elias, 2024. "Quantifying the short-term asymmetric effects of renewable energy on the electricity merit-order curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    24. Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti, 2019. "Market coupling between electricity markets: theory and empirical evidence for the Italian–Slovenian interconnection," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(2), pages 527-548, July.

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General

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