My bibliography  Save this paper

# Large Deviations Of The Realized (Co-)Volatility Vector

## Author

Listed:
• Hacène Djellout

(LMBP - Laboratoire de Mathématiques Blaise Pascal - UBP - Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

• Arnaud Guillin

(IUF - Institut Universitaire de France - M.E.N.E.S.R. - Ministère de l'Education nationale, de l’Enseignement supérieur et de la Recherche, LMBP - Laboratoire de Mathématiques Blaise Pascal - UBP - Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

• Yacouba Samoura

(LMBP - Laboratoire de Mathématiques Blaise Pascal - UBP - Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

## Abstract

Realized statistics based on high frequency returns have become very popular in financial economics. In recent years, different non-parametric estimators of the variation of a log-price process have appeared. These were developed by many authors and were motivated by the existence of complete records of price data. Among them are the realized quadratic (co-)variation which is perhaps the most well known example, providing a consistent estimator of the integrated (co-)volatility when the logarithmic price process is continuous. Limit results such as the weak law of large numbers or the central limit theorem have been proved in different contexts. In this paper, we propose to study the large deviation properties of realized (co-)volatility (i.e., when the number of high frequency observations in a fixed time interval increases to infinity. More specifically, we consider a bivariate model with synchronous observation schemes and correlated Brownian motions of the following form: $dX_{\ell,t} = \sigma_{\ell,t}dB_{\ell,t}+b_{\ell}(t,\omega)dt$ for $\ell=1,2$, where $X_{\ell}$ denotes the log-price, we are concerned with the large deviation estimation of the vector $V_t^n(X)=\left(Q_{1,t}^n(X), Q_{2,t}^n(X), C_{t}^n(X)\right)$ where $Q_{\ell,t}^n(X)$ and $C_{t}^n(X)$ represente the estimator of the quadratic variational processes $Q_{\ell,t}=\int_0^t\sigma_{\ell,s}^2ds$ and the integrated covariance $C_t=\int_0^t\sigma_{1,s}\sigma_{2,s}\rho_sds$ respectively, with $\rho_t=cov(B_{1,t}, B_{2,t})$. Our main motivation is to improve upon the existing limit theorems. Our large deviations results can be used to evaluate and approximate tail probabilities of realized (co-)volatility. As an application we provide the large deviation for the standard dependence measures between the two assets returns such as the realized regression coefficients up to time $t$, or the realized correlation. Our study should contribute to the recent trend of research on the (co-)variance estimation problems, which are quite often discussed in high-frequency financial data analysis.

## Suggested Citation

• Hacène Djellout & Arnaud Guillin & Yacouba Samoura, 2017. "Large Deviations Of The Realized (Co-)Volatility Vector," Post-Print hal-01082903, HAL.
• Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01082903
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01082903
as

File URL: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01082903/document
---><---

## References listed on IDEAS

as
1. Kanaya, Shin & Otsu, Taisuke, 2012. "Large deviations of realized volatility," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 546-581.
2. Bercu, B. & Gamboa, F. & Rouault, A., 1997. "Large deviations for quadratic forms of stationary Gaussian processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 75-90, October.
3. Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E. & Graversen, Svend Erik & Jacod, Jean & Shephard, Neil, 2006. "Limit Theorems For Bipower Variation In Financial Econometrics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 677-719, August.
4. Hayashi, Takaki & Yoshida, Nakahiro, 2011. "Nonsynchronous covariation process and limit theorems," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 121(10), pages 2416-2454, October.
5. Ole E. Barndorff‐Nielsen & Neil Shephard, 2002. "Econometric analysis of realized volatility and its use in estimating stochastic volatility models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(2), pages 253-280, May.
6. Mancini, Cecilia, 2008. "Large deviation principle for an estimator of the diffusion coefficient in a jump-diffusion process," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(7), pages 869-879, May.
7. Mancini, Cecilia & Gobbi, Fabio, 2012. "Identifying The Brownian Covariation From The Co-Jumps Given Discrete Observations," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(2), pages 249-273, April.
8. Dovonon, Prosper & Gonçalves, Sílvia & Meddahi, Nour, 2013. "Bootstrapping realized multivariate volatility measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(1), pages 49-65.
9. Zhang, Lan & Mykland, Per A. & Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2005. "A Tale of Two Time Scales: Determining Integrated Volatility With Noisy High-Frequency Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 1394-1411, December.
10. Arnaud Gloter, 2007. "Efficient estimation of drift parameters in stochastic volatility models," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 495-519, October.
11. Todorov, Viktor & Bollerslev, Tim, 2010. "Jumps and betas: A new framework for disentangling and estimating systematic risks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 220-235, August.
12. Markus Bibinger & Markus Reiß, 2014. "Spectral Estimation of Covolatility from Noisy Observations Using Local Weights," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 41(1), pages 23-50, March.
13. Djellout, Hacène & Samoura, Yacouba, 2014. "Large and moderate deviations of realized covolatility," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 30-37.
14. F. Comte & V. Genon-Catalot & Y. Rozenholc, 2010. "Nonparametric estimation for a stochastic volatility model," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 49-80, January.
15. AÃ¯t-Sahalia, Yacine & Fan, Jianqing & Xiu, Dacheng, 2010. "High-Frequency Covariance Estimates With Noisy and Asynchronous Financial Data," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(492), pages 1504-1517.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

## Most related items

These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
1. Hacène Djellout & Arnaud Guillin & Yacouba Samoura, 2014. "Large Deviations Of The Realized (Co-)Volatility Vector," Working Papers hal-01082903, HAL.
2. Djellout, Hacène & Guillin, Arnaud & Samoura, Yacouba, 2017. "Estimation of the realized (co-)volatility vector: Large deviations approach," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(9), pages 2926-2960.
3. Hacène Djellout & Hui Jiang, 2018. "Large Deviations Of The Threshold Estimator Of Integrated (Co-)Volatility Vector In The Presence Of Jumps," Post-Print hal-01147189, HAL.
4. Hacène Djellout & Hui Jiang, 2015. "Large Deviations Of The Threshold Estimator Of Integrated (Co-)Volatility Vector In The Presence Of Jumps," Working Papers hal-01147189, HAL.
5. Liao, Yin & Anderson, Heather M., 2019. "Testing for cojumps in high-frequency financial data: An approach based on first-high-low-last prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 252-274.
6. Djellout, Hacène & Samoura, Yacouba, 2014. "Large and moderate deviations of realized covolatility," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 30-37.
7. Hounyo, Ulrich, 2017. "Bootstrapping integrated covariance matrix estimators in noisy jump–diffusion models with non-synchronous trading," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 197(1), pages 130-152.
8. Ulrich Hounyo, 2014. "Bootstrapping integrated covariance matrix estimators in noisy jump-diffusion models with non-synchronous trading," CREATES Research Papers 2014-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
9. Altmeyer, Randolf & Bibinger, Markus, 2015. "Functional stable limit theorems for quasi-efficient spectral covolatility estimators," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 125(12), pages 4556-4600.
10. Kanaya, Shin & Otsu, Taisuke, 2012. "Large deviations of realized volatility," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 546-581.
11. Li, Jia & Todorov, Viktor & Tauchen, George & Chen, Rui, 2017. "Mixed-scale jump regressions with bootstrap inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 417-432.
12. Fan, Jianqing & Kim, Donggyu, 2019. "Structured volatility matrix estimation for non-synchronized high-frequency financial data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(1), pages 61-78.
13. Dovonon, Prosper & Gonçalves, Sílvia & Meddahi, Nour, 2013. "Bootstrapping realized multivariate volatility measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 172(1), pages 49-65.
14. Liu, Zhi & Kong, Xin-Bing & Jing, Bing-Yi, 2018. "Estimating the integrated volatility using high-frequency data with zero durations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 18-32.
15. Bibinger, Markus & Winkelmann, Lars, 2015. "Econometrics of co-jumps in high-frequency data with noise," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(2), pages 361-378.
16. Bibinger, Markus, 2012. "An estimator for the quadratic covariation of asynchronously observed Itô processes with noise: Asymptotic distribution theory," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 122(6), pages 2411-2453.
17. Camponovo, Lorenzo & Matsushita, Yukitoshi & Otsu, Taisuke, 2019. "Empirical likelihood for high frequency data," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100320, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
18. Yuta Koike, 2014. "An estimator for the cumulative co-volatility of asynchronously observed semimartingales with jumps," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 41(2), pages 460-481, June.
19. Peter C.B. Phillips & Jun Yu, 2007. "Information Loss in Volatility Measurement with Flat Price Trading," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000805, UCLA Department of Economics.
20. Barndorff-Nielsen, Ole E. & Hansen, Peter Reinhard & Lunde, Asger & Shephard, Neil, 2011. "Subsampling realised kernels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 204-219, January.

### Keywords

large deviations; diffusion; discrete-time observation; Realised Volatility and covolatility;
All these keywords.

### NEP fields

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

## Corrections

All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01082903. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.