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The Employment Effects of Fiscal Policy: How Costly Are ARRA Jobs?

Author

Listed:
  • F. Gerard Adams

    (University of Pennsylvania (Emeritus), Economics Department)

  • Byron Gangnes

    () (University of Hawaii at Manoa, Economics Department)

Abstract

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act was intended to stimulate the U.S.economy and to create jobs. But at what cost? In this paper, we discuss the range of potential benefits and costs associated with counter-cyclical fiscal policy. Benefits and costs may be social, macroeconomic, systemic, and budgetary. They may depend importantly on timing and implementation. There may be very different implications over the business cycle horizon and in the medium to long term. We use simulations of the IHS Global Insight macro-econometric model to evaluate some of these costs and benefits in the U.S. economy, looking specifically at the impact of the ARRA program and potential alternative policies.

Suggested Citation

  • F. Gerard Adams & Byron Gangnes, 2010. "The Employment Effects of Fiscal Policy: How Costly Are ARRA Jobs?," Working Papers 201026, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hai:wpaper:201026
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    File URL: http://www.economics.hawaii.edu/research/workingpapers/WP_10-26.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kiley, Michael T., 2013. "Output gaps," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-18.
    2. John F. Cogan & John B. Taylor, 2012. "What the Government Purchases Multiplier Actually Multiplied in the 2009 Stimulus Package," Book Chapters,in: Lee E. Ohanian & John B. Taylor & Ian J. Wright (ed.), Government Policies and the Delayed Economic Recovery, chapter 5 Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    3. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    4. Clark, Kenneth & Leslie, Derek & Symons, Elizabeth, 1994. "The Costs of Recession," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(422), pages 20-36, January.
    5. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
    6. Michael Woodford, 2011. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, January.
    7. Daniel J. Wilson, 2010. "Fiscal spending multipliers: evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act," Working Paper Series 2010-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Stratford Douglas & Howard J. Wall, 2000. "The revealed cost of unemployment," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 1-10.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; employment; American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA); econometric model simulation.;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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