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Une analyse empirique du processus de convergence des pays africains

Author

Listed:
  • Mohamed Siry Bah

    (University of Nice Sophia Antipolis, France
    GREDEG CNRS)

  • Thomas Jobert

    (University of Nice Sophia Antipolis, France
    GREDEG CNRS)

Abstract

Cet article propose une analyse du processus de convergence de 50 pays africains sur la période 1980-2010 basée sur la méthode d'estimation Bayésienne itérative de Maddala et al. (1997). Les résultats obtenus sugg èrent la prépondérance des ressources naturelles pour la convergence et la croissance économique des pays africains car on observe des clubs de convergence en fonction des spécialisations des pays. Le groupe le plus performant en termes de croissance est constitué de pays dotés de ressources pétroliè res et miniè res. Ils sont suivis par les pays spécialisés principalement dans l'agriculture dÕexportation qui convergent aussi vers un mê me état stationnaire. Les cas particuliers de la République Démocratique du Congo et du Zimbabwe montrent que la stabilité politique est une condition nécessaire pour la croissance économique. En effet, ces pays malgré des ressources naturelles considérables convergent vers le m ême état stationnaire que les pays les plus pauvres du continent. Par ailleurs, les exemples de l'Ile Maurice et du Cap-Vert montrent qu'il existe une alternative aux dotations naturelles : de bonnes politiques économiques.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Siry Bah & Thomas Jobert, 2015. "Une analyse empirique du processus de convergence des pays africains," GREDEG Working Papers 2015-33, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:gre:wpaper:2015-33
    as

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    File URL: http://www.gredeg.cnrs.fr/working-papers/GREDEG-WP-2015-33.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
    2. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    3. Galor, Oded, 1996. "Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1056-1069, July.
    4. Tidiane Kinda, 2008. "Infrastructures et flux de capitaux privés vers les pays en développement," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 59(3), pages 537-549.
    5. Savvides, Andreas, 1995. "Economic growth in Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 449-458, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Convergence; Convergence clubs; African countries; Growth; Shrinkage estimators;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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